气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Ecological and societal effects of Central Asian streamflow variation over the past eight centuries

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41612-022-00239-5
	Ecological and societal effects of Central Asian streamflow variation over the past eight centuries
	Chen, Feng; Yuan, Yujiang; Trouet, Valerie; Buntgen, Ulf; Esper, Jan; Chen, Fahu; Yu, Shulong; Shen, Miaogen; Zhang, Ruibo; Shang, Huaming; Chen, Youping; Zhang, Heli
通讯作者	Chen, F (通讯作者)
发表日期	2022
ISSN	2397-3722
卷号	5 期号:1
英文摘要	Understanding changes in water availability is critical for Central Asia; however, long streamflow reconstructions extending beyond the period of instrumental gauge measurements are largely missing. Here, we present a 785-year-long streamflow reconstruction from spruce tree rings from the Tien Shan Mountains. Although an absolute causal relationship can not be established, relatively high streamflow rates coincided roughly with the period of Mongol expansion from 1225 to 1260 CE and the rise of the Timurid Empire from 1361 to 1400 CE. Since overall wetter conditions were further found during the Zunghar Khanate period 1693-1705 CE, we argue that phases of streamflow surplus likely promoted oasis and grassland productivity, which was an important factor for the rise of inner Eurasian steppe empires. Moreover, we suggest that the streamflow variation might be critical for plague outbreaks in Central Asia, and propose several explanations for possible links with Europe's repeated Black Death pandemics. We demonstrate that 20th-century low streamflow is unprecedented in the past eight centuries and exacerbated the Aral Sea crisis, which is one of the most staggering ecological disasters of the twentieth century.
关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE HEIHE RIVER VARIABILITY DYNAMICS PLAGUE PRECIPITATION DRIVEN RECONSTRUCTION TEMPERATURES POPULATIONS
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000776170300001
来源期刊	NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/260767
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Feng,Yuan, Yujiang,Trouet, Valerie,et al. Ecological and societal effects of Central Asian streamflow variation over the past eight centuries[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2022,5(1).
APA	Chen, Feng.,Yuan, Yujiang.,Trouet, Valerie.,Buntgen, Ulf.,Esper, Jan.,...&Zhang, Heli.(2022).Ecological and societal effects of Central Asian streamflow variation over the past eight centuries.NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE,5(1).
MLA	Chen, Feng,et al."Ecological and societal effects of Central Asian streamflow variation over the past eight centuries".NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE 5.1(2022).