气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future potential distribution and expansion trends of highland barley under climate change in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau (QTP)

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.108702
	Future potential distribution and expansion trends of highland barley under climate change in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau (QTP)
	Yin, Yuanyuan; Wang, Jing'ai; Leng, Guoyong; Zhao, Jintao; Wang, Lei; Ma, Weidong
通讯作者	Yin, YY ; Wang, L (通讯作者)
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1470-160X
EISSN	1872-7034
卷号	136
英文摘要	Highland barley is an important grain crop in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) of China. However, rare knowledge is available on the spatial pattern of habitat suitability across QTP and how it would be affected by future climate change. Based on 191 presence records, the probability of highland barley across the QTP under climate change is simulated by using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. And the critical environmental variable (s) affecting the distribution of highland barley and the hotspots of habitat degradation/expansion during the 21st century are investigated. The results show that the daily minimum temperature of coldest month and annual precipitation are determined as the two most important environmental variables for predicting habitat distributions. Across the QTP, future climate change may result in an increase in the suitable area for planting highland barley northward, westward, and upward during the 21st century. Highland barley in river valleys of the southeastern and northeast plateau, where areas of medium and optimal suitable habitats are concentrated, may experience contractions in areas of habitat suitability during the 21st century. By the late 21st century, the average expansion and contraction of suitable habitat areas are 0.46 and 0.14 million km2, respectively, and the upper limit elevation suitable for planting barley may increase by 215 m. Our results could provide valuable distribution information to the national and local administrators for developing the special industry of highland barley in the QTP.
关键词	GEOGRAPHICAL-DISTRIBUTION SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS TEMPERATURE MAXENT MODEL PREDICTION CHINA
英文关键词	Highland barley; Climate warming; Habitat degradation; expansion; MaxEnt model; Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000761394000003
来源期刊	ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/260687
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yin, Yuanyuan,Wang, Jing'ai,Leng, Guoyong,et al. Future potential distribution and expansion trends of highland barley under climate change in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau (QTP)[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2022,136.
APA	Yin, Yuanyuan,Wang, Jing'ai,Leng, Guoyong,Zhao, Jintao,Wang, Lei,&Ma, Weidong.(2022).Future potential distribution and expansion trends of highland barley under climate change in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau (QTP).ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,136.
MLA	Yin, Yuanyuan,et al."Future potential distribution and expansion trends of highland barley under climate change in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau (QTP)".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 136(2022).