气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods from future Third Pole deglaciation

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-021-01028-3
	Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods from future Third Pole deglaciation
	Zheng, Guoxiong; Allen, Simon Keith; Bao, Anming; Ballesteros-Canovas, Juan Antonio; Huss, Matthias; Zhang, Guoqing; Li, Junli; Yuan, Ye; Jiang, Liangliang; Yu, Tao; Chen, Wenfeng; Stoffel, Markus
通讯作者	Bao, A (通讯作者)
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1758-678X
EISSN	1758-6798
起始页码	411
结束页码	+
卷号	11 期号:5
英文摘要	Global warming-driven deglaciation in high-mountain Asia raises the likelihood of natural dam failure and associated glacial lake outburst flood risk. This is estimated for lake development under present-day and future warming scenarios, highlighting emerging hotspots and transboundary impacts. Warming on Earth's Third Pole is leading to rapid loss of ice and the formation and expansion of glacial lakes, posing a severe threat to downstream communities. Here we provide a holistic assessment of past evolution, present state and modelled future change of glacial lakes and related glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk across the Third Pole. We show that the highest GLOF risk is at present centred in the eastern Himalaya, where the current risk level is at least twice that in adjacent regions. In the future, GLOF risk will potentially almost triple as a consequence of further lake development, and additional hotspots will emerge to the west, including within transboundary regions. With apparent increases in GLOF risk already anticipated by the mid-twenty-first century in some regions, the results highlight the urgent need for forward-looking, collaborative, long-term approaches to mitigate future impacts and enhance sustainable development across the Third Pole.
关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE INVENTORY
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000647948000014
来源期刊	NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/260531
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zheng, Guoxiong,Allen, Simon Keith,Bao, Anming,et al. Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods from future Third Pole deglaciation[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2021,11(5).
APA	Zheng, Guoxiong.,Allen, Simon Keith.,Bao, Anming.,Ballesteros-Canovas, Juan Antonio.,Huss, Matthias.,...&Stoffel, Markus.(2021).Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods from future Third Pole deglaciation.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,11(5).
MLA	Zheng, Guoxiong,et al."Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods from future Third Pole deglaciation".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 11.5(2021).