气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected Drought Conditions over Southern Slope of the Central Himalaya Using CMIP6 Models

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DOI	10.1007/s41748-021-00254-1
	Projected Drought Conditions over Southern Slope of the Central Himalaya Using CMIP6 Models
	Sharma, Shankar; Hamal, Kalpana; Khadka, Nitesh; Ali, Munawar; Subedi, Madan; Hussain, Gulfam; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Saeed, Sajjad; Dawadi, Binod
通讯作者	Dawadi, B (通讯作者)
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2509-9426
EISSN	2509-9434
起始页码	849
结束页码	859
卷号	5 期号:4
英文摘要	Nepal is located on the southern slope of the Central Himalayas and has experienced frequent droughts in the past. In this study, we used an ensemble of 13 biased corrected models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to assess the future drought conditions over Nepal under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at annual timescale. The monthly correlation between observed and CMIP6-simulated historical SPEI is 0.23 (p < 0.01), which indicates the CMIP6 model ensemble can simulate the drought characteristics over Nepal. In the future period (2020-2100), the duration and severity of droughts are projected to increase with higher emission scenarios, especially for SSP585. Our results indicate enhanced drought intensity under SSP126, whereas, under SSP245, the drought frequency will be slightly higher. The drought frequency is projected to increase in the early future (2020-2060), decreasing in the late future (2061-2100) under all SSP scenarios. The results further indicate more prolonged and severe droughts in the early future under SSP585 as compared to SSP126 and SSP245. The findings of the present study can help drought mitigation as well as long-term adaptation strategies over Nepal.
关键词	WATER-RESOURCES NORTHWEST CHINA PRECIPITATION CLIMATE PREDICTABILITY CLASSIFICATION EVENTS SKILL FLOOD RISK
英文关键词	Projected drought; Drought characteristics; CMIP6; SPEI; Central Himalaya; Nepal
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000694597400002
来源期刊	EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/260520
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sharma, Shankar,Hamal, Kalpana,Khadka, Nitesh,et al. Projected Drought Conditions over Southern Slope of the Central Himalaya Using CMIP6 Models[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2021,5(4).
APA	Sharma, Shankar.,Hamal, Kalpana.,Khadka, Nitesh.,Ali, Munawar.,Subedi, Madan.,...&Dawadi, Binod.(2021).Projected Drought Conditions over Southern Slope of the Central Himalaya Using CMIP6 Models.EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT,5(4).
MLA	Sharma, Shankar,et al."Projected Drought Conditions over Southern Slope of the Central Himalaya Using CMIP6 Models".EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT 5.4(2021).