气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Mapping the Global-Scale Maize Drought Risk Under Climate Change Based on the GEPIC-Vulnerability-Risk Model

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s13753-021-00349-3
	Mapping the Global-Scale Maize Drought Risk Under Climate Change Based on the GEPIC-Vulnerability-Risk Model
	Yin, Yuanyuan; Gao, Yuan; Lin, Degen; Wang, Lei; Ma, Weidong; Wang, Jing'ai
通讯作者	Wang, L (通讯作者)
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2095-0055
EISSN	2192-6395
起始页码	428
结束页码	442
卷号	12 期号:3
英文摘要	Drought is projected to become more frequent and increasingly severe under climate change in many agriculturally important areas. However, few studies have assessed and mapped the future global crop drought risk-defined as the occurrence probability and likelihood of yield losses from drought-at high resolution. With support of the GEPIC-Vulnerability-Risk model, we propose an analytical framework to quantify and map the future global-scale maize drought risk at a 0.5 degrees resolution. In this framework, the model can be calibrated and validated using datasets from in situ observations (for example, yield statistics, losses caused by drought) and the literature. Water stress and drought risk under climate change can then be simulated. To evaluate the applicability of the framework, a global-scale assessment of maize drought risk under 1.5 degrees C warming was conducted. At 1.5 degrees C warming, the maize drought risk is projected to be regionally variable (high in the midlatitudes and low in the tropics and subtropics), with only a minor negative (- 0.93%) impact on global maize yield. The results are consistent with previous studies of drought impacts on maize yield of major agricultural countries around the world. Therefore, the framework can act as a practical tool for global-scale, future-oriented crop drought risk assessment, and the results provide theoretical support for adaptive planning strategies for drought.
关键词	GIS-BASED TOOL ELEVATED CO2 CROP IMPACT CHINA AGRICULTURE UNCERTAINTY TEMPERATURE LIMITATIONS HAZARD
英文关键词	Climate change; Future-oriented risk assessment; GEPIC-Vulnerability-Risk model; Maize drought risk; Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:000650135900003
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK SCIENCE
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/260407
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yin, Yuanyuan,Gao, Yuan,Lin, Degen,et al. Mapping the Global-Scale Maize Drought Risk Under Climate Change Based on the GEPIC-Vulnerability-Risk Model[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2021,12(3).
APA	Yin, Yuanyuan,Gao, Yuan,Lin, Degen,Wang, Lei,Ma, Weidong,&Wang, Jing'ai.(2021).Mapping the Global-Scale Maize Drought Risk Under Climate Change Based on the GEPIC-Vulnerability-Risk Model.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK SCIENCE,12(3).
MLA	Yin, Yuanyuan,et al."Mapping the Global-Scale Maize Drought Risk Under Climate Change Based on the GEPIC-Vulnerability-Risk Model".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK SCIENCE 12.3(2021).