气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessments of future climate extremes in China by using high-resolution PRECIS 2.0 simulations

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DOI	10.1007/s00704-021-03618-9
	Assessments of future climate extremes in China by using high-resolution PRECIS 2.0 simulations
	Meng, Chunchun; Zhang, Lei; Gou, Peng; Huang, Qianqian; Ma, Yaoming; Miao, Shiguang; Ma, Weiqiang; Xu, Yinlong
通讯作者	Xu, YL (通讯作者)
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0177-798X
EISSN	1434-4483
起始页码	295
结束页码	311
卷号	145 期号:1-2
英文摘要	Based on bias-corrected future projections from the Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model under both RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios over China, extreme climatic events at the middle and end of the twenty-first century are investigated in this paper. The model performance of PRECIS is validated using comparisons with observations and HadGEM2-ES projections, and the bias correction adds fidelity to the projections of basic climate variables and extreme climate events. In the future, our single-realisation estimates show that the number of frost days is projected to decrease and days with tropical nights are projected to increase. Including northeast China, Sichuan Basin, middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and south China, the number of consecutive dry days will increase from our single-realisation estimates, which will exhibit a spatial distribution almost similar to that of consecutive wet days in the coming decades. Although precipitation indices associated with duration will increase, a simple precipitation index depicting the intensity of extreme events will decrease over east and south China in the future from our single-realisation projections. Daily rainfall above 50 mm, which is usually regarded as a rainstorm event, is predicted to increase under the RCP4.5 scenario over most of China from our single-realisation estimates; while the same change pattern will occur in southernmost China, similarly spatially distributed for the RCP8.5 scenario, the number of rainstorm will first increase in the middle of the twenty-first century and then slow at the end of the twenty-first century in the Yangtze River region. In conclusion, our single-realisation estimates indicate that the persistence of extreme precipitation will increase with time, but the change of extreme precipitation intensity is not significant in the future. The comparison of climatic extreme events under the RCP4.5 scenario with those under the RCP8.5 scenario shows that extreme climate events will be enhanced under the higher emissions scenario; hence, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will help alleviate climate change effects in the future.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000645887100001
来源期刊	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/260406
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Meng, Chunchun,Zhang, Lei,Gou, Peng,et al. Assessments of future climate extremes in China by using high-resolution PRECIS 2.0 simulations[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2021,145(1-2).
APA	Meng, Chunchun.,Zhang, Lei.,Gou, Peng.,Huang, Qianqian.,Ma, Yaoming.,...&Xu, Yinlong.(2021).Assessments of future climate extremes in China by using high-resolution PRECIS 2.0 simulations.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,145(1-2).
MLA	Meng, Chunchun,et al."Assessments of future climate extremes in China by using high-resolution PRECIS 2.0 simulations".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 145.1-2(2021).