气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of CMIP6 Models over Two Third Pole Subregions with Contrasting Circulation Systems

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0214.1
	Evaluation of CMIP6 Models over Two Third Pole Subregions with Contrasting Circulation Systems
	Li, Ying; Wang, Chenghao; Su, Fengge
通讯作者	Su, FG (通讯作者)
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0894-8755
EISSN	1520-0442
起始页码	9133
结束页码	9152
卷号	34 期号:22
英文摘要	Reliable simulations of historical and future climate are critical to assessing ecological and hydrological responses over the Third Pole region (TP; the area including the Himalaya-Hindu Kush mountain range and the Tibetan Plateau). In this study, we evaluate the historical and future temperature and precipitation simulations of 18 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in southeastern TP (SETP) and the upstream area of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya (UAS) regions, two typical TP subregions dominated by the Indian summer monsoon system and westerlies, respectively. Comparison against station observations suggests that CMIP6 models generally capture the intra-annual variability and spatial pattern of historical climate over both subregions. However, the wetting and cold biases observed in CMIP5 still persist in CMIP6; annual temperature is underestimated by most models and annual precipitation is overestimated by all models. Multimodel average cold biases in SETP and UAS are 1.18 degrees and 0.32 degrees C, respectively, and wet biases in SETP and UAS are 119% and 46%, respectively. We further analyze climate projections under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Both SETP and UAS subregions are projected to experience significant warming in 2015-2100, with warming trends 34%-42% and 40%-50% higher than the global trend, respectively. Model projections suggest that the warming trend will slow down under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 but further intensify under SSP5-8.5 in 2050-2100. Monsoon-dominated SETP is projected to experience a significant wetting trend stronger than UAS over the entire future period, especially in summer (cf. winter in westerlies-dominated UAS). Concurrently, a significant drying trend in summer is found in UAS during 2050-2100 under SSP5-8.5, suggesting the intensified uneven distributions of seasonal precipitation based on projections.
关键词	QINGHAI-TIBETAN PLATEAU CLIMATE-CHANGE REGIONAL CLIMATE WATER-RESOURCES PRECIPITATION SIMULATIONS TEMPERATURE SEASONALITY VARIABILITY RESOLUTION
英文关键词	Atmospheric circulation; Precipitation; Climate change; Temperature; Bias; Climate prediction; Ensembles; Model evaluation/performance
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000752646200018
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/260389
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Ying,Wang, Chenghao,Su, Fengge. Evaluation of CMIP6 Models over Two Third Pole Subregions with Contrasting Circulation Systems[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2021,34(22).
APA	Li, Ying,Wang, Chenghao,&Su, Fengge.(2021).Evaluation of CMIP6 Models over Two Third Pole Subregions with Contrasting Circulation Systems.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,34(22).
MLA	Li, Ying,et al."Evaluation of CMIP6 Models over Two Third Pole Subregions with Contrasting Circulation Systems".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 34.22(2021).