气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Variable 21st Century Climate Change Response for Rivers in High Mountain Asia at Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales

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DOI	10.1029/2020WR029266
	Variable 21st Century Climate Change Response for Rivers in High Mountain Asia at Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales
	Khanal, S.; Lutz, A. F.; Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A.; van den Hurk, B.; Yao, T.; Immerzeel, W. W.
通讯作者	Khanal, S (通讯作者)
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0043-1397
EISSN	1944-7973
卷号	57 期号:5
英文摘要	The hydrological response to climate change in mountainous basins manifests itself at varying spatial and temporal scales, ranging from catchment to large river basin scale and from sub-daily to decade and century scale. To robustly assess the 21st century climate change impact for hydrology in entire High Mountain Asia (HMA) at a wide range of scales, we use a high resolution cryospheric-hydrological model covering 15 upstream HMA basins to quantify the compound effects of future changes in precipitation and temperature based on the range of climate change projections in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate model ensemble. Our analysis reveals contrasting responses for HMA's rivers, dictated by their hydrological regimes. At the seasonal scale, the earlier onset of melting causes a shift in the magnitude and peak of water availability, to earlier in the year. At the decade to century scale, after an initial increase, the glacier melt declines by the mid or end of the century except for the Tarim river basin, where it continues to increase. Despite a large variability in hydrological regimes across HMA's rivers, our results indicate relatively consistent climate change responses across HMA in terms of total water availability at decadal time scales. Although total water availability increases for the headwaters, changes in seasonality and magnitude may diverge widely between basins and need to be addressed while adapting to future changes in a region where food security, energy security as well as biodiversity, and the livelihoods of many depend on water from HMA.
关键词	HYDROLOGICAL MODEL PARAMETERS GLACIER MASS BALANCES TIBETAN PLATEAU HIMALAYAN WATER SNOW MELT TEMPERATURE KARAKORAM PRECIPITATION
英文关键词	climate change; High Mountain Asia; hydrological regimes; seasonality; spatial and temporal changes; water towers
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:000654464300049
来源期刊	WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/260361
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Khanal, S.,Lutz, A. F.,Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A.,et al. Variable 21st Century Climate Change Response for Rivers in High Mountain Asia at Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2021,57(5).
APA	Khanal, S.,Lutz, A. F.,Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A.,van den Hurk, B.,Yao, T.,&Immerzeel, W. W..(2021).Variable 21st Century Climate Change Response for Rivers in High Mountain Asia at Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,57(5).
MLA	Khanal, S.,et al."Variable 21st Century Climate Change Response for Rivers in High Mountain Asia at Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 57.5(2021).