气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Risk assessment of glacial debris flow on alpine highway under climate change: A case study of Aierkuran Gully along Karakoram Highway

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DOI	10.1007/s11629-021-6689-3
	Risk assessment of glacial debris flow on alpine highway under climate change: A case study of Aierkuran Gully along Karakoram Highway
	Li Ya-mei; Su Li-jun; Zou Qiang; Wei Xue-li
通讯作者	Su, LJ (通讯作者)
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1672-6316
EISSN	1993-0321
起始页码	1458
结束页码	1475
卷号	18 期号:6
英文摘要	Glacial debris flows (GDFs) often occur in alpine regions that are subject to rapid climate change, and pose a serious threat to road systems. However, the ways that climate change impacts GDF risks along road systems remain poorly understood. Aierkuran Gully, located in eastern Pamir along Karakoram Highway (KKH), is a hotspot for GDF activity and climate change, and was thus selected to investigate the GDF risk to road systems under climate change conditions. RegCM4.6 climate data for northwestern China were selected as climate projections during baseline (2011-2020) and future periods (2031-2040) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. To reflect the coupling effect of rainfall and melt water that triggers GDF, a glacial hydrological model DETIM that considers both factors was applied to calculate the peak debris flow discharge. A FLO-2D model was calibrated based on high-quality data collected from a detailed field investigation and historical debris flow event. The FLO-2D model was used to simulate the debris flow depth and velocity during baseline and future periods under RCP8.5. The debris flow hazard was analyzed by integrating the maximum flow depth and momentum. Road structure vulnerability was further determined based on the economic value and susceptibility of hazard-affected objects. The GDF risk along KKH was assessed based on the GDF hazard and vulnerability analysis. Our results show that climate change would lead to amplified peak debris flow discharge, trigger higher-magnitude GDF, and induce more severe damage and threats to the road system. Compared with the baseline period, the debris flow damage risk for culverts and bridges would increase and the areas that inundate the road and pavement would expand. Our findings provide valuable insights for the development of mitigation strategies to adapt road systems to climate change, especially in alpine regions with highly active GDFs.
关键词	IMPACTS HAZARD SIMULATION LANDSLIDE MODEL PRECIPITATION STORGLACIAREN TEMPERATURE PREDICTION AREA
英文关键词	Glacial debris flow; Risk assessment; Climate change; Alpine area; Karakoram Highway
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000662311100004
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/260330
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li Ya-mei,Su Li-jun,Zou Qiang,et al. Risk assessment of glacial debris flow on alpine highway under climate change: A case study of Aierkuran Gully along Karakoram Highway[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2021,18(6).
APA	Li Ya-mei,Su Li-jun,Zou Qiang,&Wei Xue-li.(2021).Risk assessment of glacial debris flow on alpine highway under climate change: A case study of Aierkuran Gully along Karakoram Highway.JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,18(6).
MLA	Li Ya-mei,et al."Risk assessment of glacial debris flow on alpine highway under climate change: A case study of Aierkuran Gully along Karakoram Highway".JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE 18.6(2021).