气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Trade Volume Prediction Based on a Three-Stage Model When Arctic Sea Routes Open

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/sym13040610
	Trade Volume Prediction Based on a Three-Stage Model When Arctic Sea Routes Open
	Sui, Yijie; Fu, Dongjie; Su, Fenzhen
通讯作者	Su, FZ (通讯作者)
发表日期	2021
EISSN	2073-8994
卷号	13 期号:4
英文摘要	With the advancement of global warming, the Arctic sea routes (ASRs) may open for the entire year. The ASRs will be far more competitive than they are now, and they will be the major international sea routes in the future. To date, most studies have researched the economic feasibility in the short term from a company's perspective. To help to plan the shipping market in the future, we developed a three-stage model to simulate the trade demand of the ASRs for the long term. This model firstly considers the seasonal sea ice dynamics in the future and plans new paths for vessels shipping through the Arctic. Additionally, an improved trade prediction model was developed to adapt to the long-term forecasts. After verification, the accuracy of the model was found to be very high (R-2 = 0.937). In comparison with another transportation cost model and a trade prediction model, our model was more reasonable. This study simulated the trade volumes of China, Europe (EU), and North America (NA) in 2100 with the ASRs open. The results show that the percentage of port trade can be up to 26% in representative concentration pathway (RCP)2.6, and the percentage of port trade can be up to 52% in RCP8.5.
关键词	ECONOMIC-FEASIBILITY PERSPECTIVES WILL
英文关键词	Arctic; route planning; Arctic sea route; trade forecast
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000643639700001
来源期刊	SYMMETRY-BASEL
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/260159
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sui, Yijie,Fu, Dongjie,Su, Fenzhen. Trade Volume Prediction Based on a Three-Stage Model When Arctic Sea Routes Open[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2021,13(4).
APA	Sui, Yijie,Fu, Dongjie,&Su, Fenzhen.(2021).Trade Volume Prediction Based on a Three-Stage Model When Arctic Sea Routes Open.SYMMETRY-BASEL,13(4).
MLA	Sui, Yijie,et al."Trade Volume Prediction Based on a Three-Stage Model When Arctic Sea Routes Open".SYMMETRY-BASEL 13.4(2021).