气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Modeling-Based Runoff Simulation in Trans-Boundary Mangla Watershed Pakistan

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DOI	10.3390/w12113254
	Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Modeling-Based Runoff Simulation in Trans-Boundary Mangla Watershed Pakistan
	Yaseen, Muhammad; Waseem, Muhammad; Latif, Yasir; Azam, Muhammad Imran; Ahmad, Ijaz; Abbas, Sohail; Sarwar, Muhammad Kaleem; Nabi, Ghulam
通讯作者	Waseem, M (通讯作者)
发表日期	2020
EISSN	2073-4441
卷号	12 期号:11
英文摘要	The economy of Pakistan relies on the agricultural sector which mainly depends on the irrigation water generating from the upper Indus river basin. Mangla watershed is a trans-boundary basin which shares borders of India and Pakistan, it comprises five major sub-basins, i.e., Jhelum, Poonch, Kanshi, Neelum and Kunhar. The runoff production of this basin is largely controlled by snowmelt in combination with the winter precipitation in the upper part of the basin and summer monsoon. The present study focusses on the application of a statistical downscaling method to generate future climatic scenarios of climatic trends (temperature and precipitation) in Mangla watershed. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was applied to downscale the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3, Global Climate Model (HadCM3-GCM) predictions of the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was used for the future projected streamflows based on developing climate change scenarios by SDSM. The results revealed an increasing trend of annual maximum temperature (A2) at the rates of 0.4, 0.7 and 1.2 degrees C for the periods of 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. However, a consistent decreasing trend of temperature was observed at the high-altitude region. Similarly, the annual minimum temperature exhibited an increasing pattern at the rates of 0.3, 0.5 and 0.9 degrees C for the periods of 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Furthermore, similar increases were observed for annual precipitation at the rates of 6%, 10%, and 19% during 2020, 2050 and 2080, respectively, for the whole watershed. Significant increasing precipitation trends in the future (2080) were observed in Kunhar, Neelum, Poonch and Kanshi sub-basins at the rates of 16%, 11%, 13% and 59%, respectively. Consequently, increased annual streamflow in the future at the rate of 15% was observed attributing to an increased temperature for snow melting in Mangla watershed. The similar increasing streamflow trend is consistent with the seasonal trends in terms of winter (16%), spring (19%) and summer (20%); however, autumn exhibited decreasing trend for all periods.
关键词	BLUE NILE BASIN CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT BIAS CORRECTION PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE EXTREMES UNCERTAINTY RESOURCES TRENDS
英文关键词	Mangla watershed; climate change; SDSM; SWAT; Indus Basin
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:000594213700001
来源期刊	WATER
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/260075
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yaseen, Muhammad,Waseem, Muhammad,Latif, Yasir,et al. Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Modeling-Based Runoff Simulation in Trans-Boundary Mangla Watershed Pakistan[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2020,12(11).
APA	Yaseen, Muhammad.,Waseem, Muhammad.,Latif, Yasir.,Azam, Muhammad Imran.,Ahmad, Ijaz.,...&Nabi, Ghulam.(2020).Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Modeling-Based Runoff Simulation in Trans-Boundary Mangla Watershed Pakistan.WATER,12(11).
MLA	Yaseen, Muhammad,et al."Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Modeling-Based Runoff Simulation in Trans-Boundary Mangla Watershed Pakistan".WATER 12.11(2020).