气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Using the contact network model and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to reconstruct the COVID-19 spread on the Diamond Princess

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043
	Using the contact network model and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to reconstruct the COVID-19 spread on the Diamond Princess
	Liu, Feng; Li, Xin; Zhu, Gaofeng
通讯作者	Li, X (通讯作者)
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2095-9273
EISSN	2095-9281
起始页码	1297
结束页码	1305
卷号	65 期号:15
英文摘要	Traditional compartmental models such as SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) assume that the epidemic transmits in a homogeneous population, but the real contact patterns in epidemics are heterogeneous. Employing a more realistic model that considers heterogeneous contact is consequently necessary. Here, we use a contact network to reconstruct unprotected, protected contact, and airborne spread to simulate the two-stages outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. We employ Bayesian inference and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to estimate the model parameters and quantify the uncertainties by the ensemble simulation technique. During the early epidemic with intensive social contacts, the results reveal that the average transmissibility t was 0.026 and the basic reproductive number R-0 was 6.94, triple that in the WHO report, indicating that all people would be infected in one month. The t and R-0 decreased to 0.0007 and 0.2 when quarantine was implemented. The reconstruction suggests that diluting the airborne virus concentration in closed settings is useful in addition to isolation, and high-risk susceptible should follow rigorous prevention measures in case exposed. This study can provide useful implications for control and prevention measures for the other cruise ships and closed settings. (C) 2020 Science China Press. Published by Elsevier B.V. and Science China Press. All rights reserved.
关键词	ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS PREDICTION
英文关键词	Contact network model; Small-world; Chain-binomial model; Airborne spread; Transmissibility; The basic reproductive number R-0
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000563052800011
来源期刊	SCIENCE BULLETIN
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/259719
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Feng,Li, Xin,Zhu, Gaofeng. Using the contact network model and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to reconstruct the COVID-19 spread on the Diamond Princess[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2020,65(15).
APA	Liu, Feng,Li, Xin,&Zhu, Gaofeng.(2020).Using the contact network model and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to reconstruct the COVID-19 spread on the Diamond Princess.SCIENCE BULLETIN,65(15).
MLA	Liu, Feng,et al."Using the contact network model and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to reconstruct the COVID-19 spread on the Diamond Princess".SCIENCE BULLETIN 65.15(2020).