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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aabb41
	Contribution of environmental forcings to US runoff changes for the period 1950-2010
	Forbes, Whitney L.; Mao, Jiafu; Jin, Mingzhou; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Fu, Wenting; Shi, Xiaoying; Riccuito, Daniel M.; Thornton, Peter E.; Ribes, AurElien; Wang, Yutao; Piao, Shilong; Zhao, Tianbao; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Fisher, Joshua B.; Ito, Akihiko; Poulter, Ben; Fang, Yuanyuan; Tian, Hanqin; Jain, Atul K.; Hayes, Daniel J.
通讯作者	Mao, JF (通讯作者)
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1748-9326
卷号	13 期号:5
英文摘要	Runoff in the United States is changing, and this study finds that the measured change is dependent on the geographic region and varies seasonally. Specifically, observed annual total runoff had an insignificant increasing trend in the US between 1950 and 2010, but this insignificance was due to regional heterogeneity with both significant and insignificant increases in the eastern, northern, and southern US, and a greater significant decrease in the western US. Trends for seasonal mean runoff also differed across regions. By region, the season with the largest observed trend was autumn for the east (positive), spring for the north (positive), winter for the south (positive), winter for the west (negative), and autumn for the US as a whole (positive). Based on the detection and attribution analysis using gridded WaterWatch runoff observations along with semi-factorial land surface model simulations from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we found that while the roles of CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover were inconsistent regionally and seasonally, the effect of climatic variations was detected for all regions and seasons, and the change in runoff could be attributed to climate change in summer and autumn in the south and in autumn in the west. We also found that the climate-only and historical transient simulations consistently underestimated the runoff trends, possibly due to precipitation bias in the MsTMIP driver or within the models themselves.
关键词	MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT PROGRAM MULTISCALE SYNTHESIS CLIMATE-CHANGE UNITED-STATES LAND-USE CARBON PRECIPITATION IMPACTS TRENDS TEMPERATURE
英文关键词	US runoff; detection and attribution; MsTMIP
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000431492000001
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/259389
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Forbes, Whitney L.,Mao, Jiafu,Jin, Mingzhou,et al. Contribution of environmental forcings to US runoff changes for the period 1950-2010[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2018,13(5).
APA	Forbes, Whitney L..,Mao, Jiafu.,Jin, Mingzhou.,Kao, Shih-Chieh.,Fu, Wenting.,...&Hayes, Daniel J..(2018).Contribution of environmental forcings to US runoff changes for the period 1950-2010.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(5).
MLA	Forbes, Whitney L.,et al."Contribution of environmental forcings to US runoff changes for the period 1950-2010".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.5(2018).