气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Contrasting streamflow regimes induced by melting glaciers across the Tien Shan - Pamir

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DOI	10.1038/s41598-018-34829-2
	Contrasting streamflow regimes induced by melting glaciers across the Tien Shan - Pamir - North Karakoram
	Luo, Yi; Wang, Xiaolei; Piao, Shilong; Sun, Lin; Ciais, Philippe; Zhang, Yiqing; Ma, Changkun; Gan, Rong; He, Chansheng
通讯作者	Luo, Y (通讯作者)
发表日期	2018
ISSN	2045-2322
卷号	8
英文摘要	The glacierized Tien Shan - Pamir - Karakoram mountain complex supplies water to about 42 million people. Yet, the knowledge about future glacial runoff in response to future climate is limited. Here, we address this issue using a hydrological model, that includes the three components of glacial runoff: ice melt, snowmelt and the runoff of rainfall over ice. The model is forced by climate projections of the CMIP5 models. We find that the three components exhibit different long-term trajectories, sometimes opposite in sign to the long-term trend in glacier impacts. For the eastern slope basins, streamflow is projected to increase by 28% (ranging from 9 to 44%, from climate model variation (CMV)) by the late 21st century, under the representative concentration pathway, RCP8.5. Ice melt contributes 39% (25 to 65%, CMV) of the total streamflow increase. However, streamflow from the western slopes is projected to decrease by 5% (-24 to 16%, CMV), due to the smaller contribution of ice melt, less precipitation and higher evapotranspiration. Increasing water supply from the eastern slopes suggests more water availability for currently degraded downstream ecosystems in the Xinjiang province of China, while the likely decreasing streamflow in Central Asian rivers on the western slopes indicates new regulations will be needed.
关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS TIANSHAN MOUNTAINS FLOOD FREQUENCY RUNOFF CHANGES MASS BALANCES RIVER-BASIN SCALE ASSESSMENTS CATCHMENT XINJIANG
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000449367700016
来源期刊	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/259369
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Luo, Yi,Wang, Xiaolei,Piao, Shilong,et al. Contrasting streamflow regimes induced by melting glaciers across the Tien Shan - Pamir - North Karakoram[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2018,8.
APA	Luo, Yi.,Wang, Xiaolei.,Piao, Shilong.,Sun, Lin.,Ciais, Philippe.,...&He, Chansheng.(2018).Contrasting streamflow regimes induced by melting glaciers across the Tien Shan - Pamir - North Karakoram.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,8.
MLA	Luo, Yi,et al."Contrasting streamflow regimes induced by melting glaciers across the Tien Shan - Pamir - North Karakoram".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 8(2018).