气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying recent precipitation change and predicting lake expansion in the Inner Tibetan Plateau

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-017-2127-5
	Quantifying recent precipitation change and predicting lake expansion in the Inner Tibetan Plateau
	Yang, Kun; Lu, Hui; Yue, Siyu; Zhang, Guoqing; Lei, Yanbin; La, Zhu; Wang, Wei
通讯作者	Yang, K (通讯作者)
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0165-0009
EISSN	1573-1480
起始页码	149
结束页码	163
卷号	147 期号:1-2
英文摘要	Lake expansion since the middle of the 1990s is one of the most outstanding environmental change events in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). This expansion has mainly occurred in the Inner TP, a vast endorheic basin with an area of about 708,000 km(2) and containing about 780 lakes larger than 1 km(2). The total lake area of the Inner TP has increased from 24,930 km(2) in 1995 to 33,741 km(2) in 2015. The variability of the lake area in the coming decades is crucial for infrastructure planning and ecology policy for this remote region. In this study, a lake mass balance model was developed to describe the lake area response to climate change. First, the model was used to inversely estimate the change in precipitation from the change in lake volume. The result shows that precipitation has increased by about 21 +/- 7% since the middle of the 1990s, as seen in GPCC global data set. Then, the lake size in the coming two decades was predicted by the model driven with either current climate or a projected future climate, showing the lake area would expand continuously, but at a lower rate than before. Both predictions yield a total lake area of 36150 +/- 500 km(2) in 2025 and a rise of average lake level by about 6.6 +/- 0.3 m from 1995 to 2025. However, the two predictions become disparate in the second decade (2026-2035), as the future climate is more warming and wetting than the current climate. It is noted that the prediction of lake expansion is robust for the entire inner TP lake system but not always applicable to individual subregions or specific lakes due to their spatiotemporal heterogeneity.
关键词	MEAN ANNUAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WATER STORAGE CHANGES BALANCE OBSERVATIONS LEVEL VARIATIONS CLIMATE-CHANGE INLAND LAKE NAM CO DYNAMICS GROWTH VOLUME
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000425959700012
来源期刊	CLIMATIC CHANGE
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/259213
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, Kun,Lu, Hui,Yue, Siyu,et al. Quantifying recent precipitation change and predicting lake expansion in the Inner Tibetan Plateau[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2018,147(1-2).
APA	Yang, Kun.,Lu, Hui.,Yue, Siyu.,Zhang, Guoqing.,Lei, Yanbin.,...&Wang, Wei.(2018).Quantifying recent precipitation change and predicting lake expansion in the Inner Tibetan Plateau.CLIMATIC CHANGE,147(1-2).
MLA	Yang, Kun,et al."Quantifying recent precipitation change and predicting lake expansion in the Inner Tibetan Plateau".CLIMATIC CHANGE 147.1-2(2018).