气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modeling the Land Use Change in an Arid Oasis Constrained by Water Resources and Environmental Policy Change Using Cellular Automata Models

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/su10082878
	Modeling the Land Use Change in an Arid Oasis Constrained by Water Resources and Environmental Policy Change Using Cellular Automata Models
	Hu, Xiaoli; Li, Xin; Lu, Ling
通讯作者	Li, X (通讯作者)
发表日期	2018
EISSN	2071-1050
卷号	10 期号:8
英文摘要	Land use and land cover change (LUCC) is an important issue in global environmental change and sustainable development, yet spatial simulation of LUCC remains challenging due to the land use system complexity. The cellular automata (CA) model plays a crucial role in simulating LUCC processes due to its powerful spatial computing power; however, the majority of current LUCC CA models are binary-state models that cannot provide more general information about the overall spatial pattern of LUCC. Moreover, the current LUCC CA models rarely consider background artificial irrigation in arid regions. Here, a multiple logistic-regression-based Markov cellular automata (MLRMCA) model and a multiple artificial-neural-network-based Markov cellular automata (MANNMCA) model were developed and applied to simulate complex land use evolutionary processes in an arid region oasis (Zhangye Oasis), constrained by water resources and environmental policy change, during the period 2000-2011. Results indicated that the MANNMCA model was superior to the MLRMCA model in simulated accuracy. Furthermore, combining the artificial neural network with CA more effectively captured the complex relationships between LUCC and a set of spatial driving variables. Although the MLRMCA model also showed some advantages, the MANNMCA model was more appropriate for simulating complex land use dynamics. The two integrated models were reliable, and could reflect the spatial evolution of regional LUCC. These models also have potential implications for land use planning and sustainable development in arid regions.
关键词	SCENARIO SIMULATION COVER CHANGE RIVER-BASIN CHINA GIS INTEGRATION CALIBRATION SYSTEM
英文关键词	land use/cover change; land use model; Markov model; cellular automata; artificial neural network; logistic regression; Zhangye oasis; Heihe River Basin
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS记录号	WOS:000446767700294
来源期刊	SUSTAINABILITY
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/259192
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hu, Xiaoli,Li, Xin,Lu, Ling. Modeling the Land Use Change in an Arid Oasis Constrained by Water Resources and Environmental Policy Change Using Cellular Automata Models[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2018,10(8).
APA	Hu, Xiaoli,Li, Xin,&Lu, Ling.(2018).Modeling the Land Use Change in an Arid Oasis Constrained by Water Resources and Environmental Policy Change Using Cellular Automata Models.SUSTAINABILITY,10(8).
MLA	Hu, Xiaoli,et al."Modeling the Land Use Change in an Arid Oasis Constrained by Water Resources and Environmental Policy Change Using Cellular Automata Models".SUSTAINABILITY 10.8(2018).