气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Nepal using multiple seismic source models

CCPortal

DOI	10.26464/epp2018030
	Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Nepal using multiple seismic source models
	Rahman, Md Moklesur; Bai, Ling
通讯作者	Bai, L (通讯作者)
发表日期	2018
ISSN	2096-3955
起始页码	327
结束页码	341
卷号	2 期号:4
英文摘要	The potential for devastating earthquakes in the Himalayan orogeny has long been recognized. The 2015 MW7.8 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake has heightened the likelihood that major earthquakes will occur along this orogenic belt in the future. Reliable seismic hazard assessment is a critical element in development of policy for seismic hazard mitigation and risk reduction. In this study, we conduct probabilistic seismic hazard assessment using three different seismogenic source models (smoothed gridded, linear, and areal sources) based on the complicated tectonics of the study area. Two sets of ground motion prediction equations are combined in a standard logic tree by taking into account the epistemic uncertainties in hazard estimation. Long-term slip rates and paleoseismic records are also incorporated in the linear source model. Peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 0.2 s and 1.0 s for 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years are estimated. The resulting maps show significant spatial variation in seismic hazard levels. The region of the Lesser Himalaya is found to have high seismic hazard potential. Along the Main Himalayan Thrust from east to west beneath the Main Central Thrust, large earthquakes have occurred regularly in history; hazard values in this region are found to be higher than those shown on existing hazard maps. In essence, the combination of long span earthquake catalogs and multiple seismogenic source models gives improved seismic hazard constraints in Nepal.
关键词	MAIN HIMALAYAN THRUST GROUND-MOTION COLLISION ZONE EARTHQUAKES MAGNITUDE INDIA EUROPE GORKHA RISK COMPLETENESS
英文关键词	Gorkha earthquake; probabilistic seismic hazard; peak ground acceleration; spectral acceleration; source models; logic tree
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:000448277700006
来源期刊	EARTH AND PLANETARY PHYSICS
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/259147
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rahman, Md Moklesur,Bai, Ling. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Nepal using multiple seismic source models[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2018,2(4).
APA	Rahman, Md Moklesur,&Bai, Ling.(2018).Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Nepal using multiple seismic source models.EARTH AND PLANETARY PHYSICS,2(4).
MLA	Rahman, Md Moklesur,et al."Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Nepal using multiple seismic source models".EARTH AND PLANETARY PHYSICS 2.4(2018).