气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation

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DOI	10.1002/2017GL073454
	Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation
	Yang, Hui; Zhou, Feng; Piao, Shilong; Huang, Mengtian; Chen, Anping; Ciais, Philippe; Li, Yue; Lian, Xu; Peng, Shushi; Zeng, Zhenzhong
通讯作者	Piao, SL (通讯作者)
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0094-8276
EISSN	1944-8007
起始页码	5540
结束页码	5549
卷号	44 期号:11
英文摘要	In the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, multimodel ensembles (arithmetic model averaging, AMA) were constructed with equal weights given to Earth system models, without considering the performance of each model at reproducing current conditions. Here we use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to construct a weighted model ensemble for runoff projections. Higher weights are given to models with better performance in estimating historical decadal mean runoff. Using the BMA method, we find that by the end of this century, the increase of global runoff (9.81.5%) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 is significantly lower than estimated from AMA (12.21.3%). BMA presents a less severe runoff increase than AMA at northern high latitudes and a more severe decrease in Amazonia. Runoff decrease in Amazonia is stronger than the intermodel difference. The intermodel difference in runoff changes is mainly caused not only by precipitation differences among models, but also by evapotranspiration differences at the high northern latitudes.
关键词	GLOBAL WATER-RESOURCES CLIMATE-CHANGE PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY CIRCULATION DISCHARGE UNCERTAINTY PROJECTIONS TRENDS IMPACT
英文关键词	runoff change; future projection; Earth system model; multimodel ensemble; Bayesian model averaging
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:000404382600034
来源期刊	GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/259084
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, Hui,Zhou, Feng,Piao, Shilong,et al. Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2017,44(11).
APA	Yang, Hui.,Zhou, Feng.,Piao, Shilong.,Huang, Mengtian.,Chen, Anping.,...&Zeng, Zhenzhong.(2017).Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(11).
MLA	Yang, Hui,et al."Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.11(2017).