气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Simulating the evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau to 2050

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DOI	10.1657/AAAR0016-008
	Simulating the evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau to 2050
	Li, Yemeng; Tian, Lide; Yi, Yang; Moore, John C.; Sun, Sainan; Zhao, Liyun
通讯作者	Zhao, LY (通讯作者)
发表日期	2017
ISSN	1523-0430
EISSN	1938-4246
起始页码	1
结束页码	12
卷号	49 期号:1
英文摘要	Few simulations of typical Tibetan Plateau glacier response to climate warming have been made, despite the glaciers' importance as water supplies in an arid region. Here we apply a three-dimensional thermomechanically coupled full-Stokes ice dynamics model to simulate the evolution of Qingtang No.1 Glacier, a representative glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau. A degree-day model along with snow temperature and precipitation estimates based on nearby observations are used to estimate surface mass balance (SMB) over the past three decades. The resulting SMB gradients and equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) sensitivity to air temperature are used to parameterize the SMB in the future. We use the ice-flow model to simulate glacier evolution from 2013 to 2050. Simulated within-glacier temperatures and present-day glacier terminus retreat rates are in reasonable agreement with previous observations. Forcing the glacier model with the historical warming trend of 0.035 degrees Ca-1 and a warming projection from the high resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) under the A1B scenario for the period 2013-2050 leads to substantial retreat and ice loss, and large increases (110%-155%) in annual water runoff. Losses of 11%-18% in area and 19%-30% in volume are predicted over the next four decades, with the warmer RegCM3 scenario giving larger rates of loss. Sensitivity of glacier change to the parameters in SMB profiles are also assessed.
关键词	FULL-STOKES MODEL SEA-LEVEL RISE CLIMATE-CHANGE REGIONAL CLIMATE HIGH ASIA MASS ICE ENERGY CHINA AREA
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Physical Geography
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geography, Physical
WOS记录号	WOS:000394918000001
来源期刊	ARCTIC ANTARCTIC AND ALPINE RESEARCH
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/258991
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Yemeng,Tian, Lide,Yi, Yang,et al. Simulating the evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau to 2050[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2017,49(1).
APA	Li, Yemeng,Tian, Lide,Yi, Yang,Moore, John C.,Sun, Sainan,&Zhao, Liyun.(2017).Simulating the evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau to 2050.ARCTIC ANTARCTIC AND ALPINE RESEARCH,49(1).
MLA	Li, Yemeng,et al."Simulating the evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau to 2050".ARCTIC ANTARCTIC AND ALPINE RESEARCH 49.1(2017).