气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Attribution of seasonal leaf area index trends in the northern latitudes with optimally integrated ecosystem models

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DOI	10.1111/gcb.13723
	Attribution of seasonal leaf area index trends in the northern latitudes with optimally integrated ecosystem models
	Zhu, Zaichun; Piao, Shilong; Lian, Xu; Myneni, Ranga B.; Peng, Shushi; Yang, Hui
通讯作者	Piao, SL (通讯作者)
发表日期	2017
ISSN	1354-1013
EISSN	1365-2486
起始页码	4798
结束页码	4813
卷号	23 期号:11
英文摘要	Significant increases in remotely sensed vegetation indices in the northern latitudes since the 1980s have been detected and attributed at annual and growing season scales. However, we presently lack a systematic understanding of how vegetation responds to asymmetric seasonal environmental changes. In this study, we first investigated trends in the seasonal mean leaf area index (LAI) at northern latitudes (north of 30 degrees N) between 1982 and 2009 using three remotely sensed long-term LAI data sets. The most significant LAI increases occurred in summer (0.009 m(2) m(-2) year(-1), p<.01), followed by autumn (0.005 m(2) m(-2) year(-1), p<.01) and spring (0.003 m(2) m(-2) year(-1), p<.01). We then quantified the contribution of elevating atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO(2)), climate change, nitrogen deposition, and land cover change to seasonal LAI increases based on factorial simulations from 10 state-of-the-art ecosystem models. Unlike previous studies that used multimodel ensemble mean (MME), we used the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to optimize the integration of model ensemble. The optimally integrated ensemble LAI changes are significantly closer to the observed seasonal LAI changes than the traditional MME results. The BMA factorial simulations suggest that eCO(2) provides the greatest contribution to increasing LAI trends in all seasons (0.003-0.007 m(2) m(-2) year(-1)), and is the main factor driving asymmetric seasonal LAI trends. Climate change controls the spatial pattern of seasonal LAI trends and dominates the increase in seasonal LAI in the northern high latitudes. The effects of nitrogen deposition and land use change are relatively small in all seasons (around 0.0002 m(2) m(-2) year(-1) and 0.0001-0.001 m(2) m(-2) year(-1), respectively). Our analysis of the seasonal LAI responses to the interactions between seasonal changes in environmental factors offers a new perspective on the response of global vegetation to environmental changes.
关键词	VEGETATION GREENING TREND XILINGOL STEPPE REGION NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION WATER-USE EFFICIENCY LAND-SURFACE MODELS NITROGEN LIMITATION CLIMATE-CHANGE PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE INNER-MONGOLIA
英文关键词	attribution; Bayesian model averaging; climate change; remote sensing; seasonal change; vegetation greening
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000412322700030
来源期刊	GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/258958
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhu, Zaichun,Piao, Shilong,Lian, Xu,et al. Attribution of seasonal leaf area index trends in the northern latitudes with optimally integrated ecosystem models[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2017,23(11).
APA	Zhu, Zaichun,Piao, Shilong,Lian, Xu,Myneni, Ranga B.,Peng, Shushi,&Yang, Hui.(2017).Attribution of seasonal leaf area index trends in the northern latitudes with optimally integrated ecosystem models.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(11).
MLA	Zhu, Zaichun,et al."Attribution of seasonal leaf area index trends in the northern latitudes with optimally integrated ecosystem models".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.11(2017).