气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projection of Climate Change Scenarios in Different Temperature Zones in the Eastern Monsoon Region, China

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DOI	10.3390/w9050305
	Projection of Climate Change Scenarios in Different Temperature Zones in the Eastern Monsoon Region, China
	Liu, Pin; Xu, Zongxue; Li, Xiuping
通讯作者	Xu, ZX (通讯作者)
发表日期	2017
ISSN	2073-4441
卷号	9 期号:5
英文摘要	The Eastern Monsoon Region of China is sensitive to climate change because of its special location. In this study, the Automated Statistical Downscaling (ASD) tool was used to simulate and project future climate change scenarios in different temperate zones in the Eastern Monsoon Region of China. The performances of the single General Circulation Model (GCM) and the GCMs ensemble from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were compared, and the capability of the ASD model was evaluated. The simple mathematical averaging ensemble of GCMs is superior to the single GCM and to the other two weighted ensembles. The ASD model was capable of presenting the temporal and spatial variation of four variables (precipitation, mean air temperature, maximum and minimum air temperature) during both the calibration and validation periods. The performance of the ASD model varied among the different temperate zones. In the simulated future scenarios, the air temperature in the four zones showed an upward trend. Except for the subtropical zone, there was a tendency for increased precipitation in both the warm temperate zone and the cold temperate and middle temperate zones. Of particular interest is that, in the subtropical zone, the precipitation will decline in the future, whereas the air temperature (especially the maximum air temperature) will increase, which may put more pressure on water resource situations in this area.
关键词	CIRCULATION MODEL OUTPUT CHANGE IMPACTS RIVER-BASIN PRECIPITATION GCMS
英文关键词	climate change; statistical downscaling; ASD; CMIP5; GCMs evaluation; Eastern Monsoon Region; China
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:000404558100006
来源期刊	WATER
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/258920
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Pin,Xu, Zongxue,Li, Xiuping. Projection of Climate Change Scenarios in Different Temperature Zones in the Eastern Monsoon Region, China[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2017,9(5).
APA	Liu, Pin,Xu, Zongxue,&Li, Xiuping.(2017).Projection of Climate Change Scenarios in Different Temperature Zones in the Eastern Monsoon Region, China.WATER,9(5).
MLA	Liu, Pin,et al."Projection of Climate Change Scenarios in Different Temperature Zones in the Eastern Monsoon Region, China".WATER 9.5(2017).