气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The contribution of China's emissions to global climate forcing

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DOI	10.1038/nature17165
	The contribution of China's emissions to global climate forcing
	Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng
通讯作者	Li, BG (通讯作者)
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0028-0836
EISSN	1476-4687
起始页码	357
结束页码	+
卷号	531 期号:7594
英文摘要	Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on common but differentiated responsibilities reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development(1), accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols(2,3), but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model(4,5) and a chemistry and transport model(6) to quantify China's present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% +/- 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China's relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% +/- 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% +/- 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China's strongest contributions are 0.16 +/- 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 +/- 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 +/- 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 +/- 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China's eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.
关键词	LAND-USE CHANGE CO2 EMISSIONS CARBON UNCERTAINTY
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000372064300050
来源期刊	NATURE
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/258863
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Bengang,Gasser, Thomas,Ciais, Philippe,et al. The contribution of China's emissions to global climate forcing[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2016,531(7594).
APA	Li, Bengang.,Gasser, Thomas.,Ciais, Philippe.,Piao, Shilong.,Tao, Shu.,...&Zhou, Feng.(2016).The contribution of China's emissions to global climate forcing.NATURE,531(7594).
MLA	Li, Bengang,et al."The contribution of China's emissions to global climate forcing".NATURE 531.7594(2016).