气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Causes of uncertainty in China's net primary production over the 21st century projected by the CMIP5 Earth system models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1002/joc.4497
	Causes of uncertainty in China's net primary production over the 21st century projected by the CMIP5 Earth system models
	Wang, Tao; Lin, Xin; Liu, Yongwen; Dantec-Nedelec, Sarah; Ottle, Catherine
通讯作者	Wang, T (通讯作者)
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0899-8418
EISSN	1097-0088
起始页码	2323
结束页码	2334
卷号	36 期号:5
英文摘要	Net primary production is the initial step of the carbon cycle in which atmospheric CO2 is fixed by plants. The responses of net primary production (NPP) to climate change and CO2 are key processes that have the potential to significantly affect the climate-carbon feedback and future atmospheric CO2 levels. Understanding future NPP changes is important for China that became the world's largest CO2 emitter since 2006. Here, we analysed NPP changes in China under the four emission scenarios from 11 Earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. We find a general increase of NPP over the 21st century under the four emission scenarios, with the large percentage increase in northwestern China and Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. However, there is a large model spread in the increase of NPP at both country and local scales. We present a statistical approach to assess various processes to explain this large spread, and find that the large spread at the country level is predominantly attributed to inter-model difference in parameterization of CO2 fertilization effect within each emission scenario. But the parameterization of CO2 fertilization effect not always dominates over the model spread across China. When it comes to the local scale, the model spread can be significantly contributed by inter-model difference in parameterization of NPP responses to precipitation along with precipitation projection in northwestern China. Our findings provide the reasons for divergent responses of future NPP through process decomposition and are the first to pinpoint that the model process dominating over the uncertainty exhibits regional dependence.
关键词	CO2 FERTILIZATION STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE FACE EXPERIMENTS INCREASING CO2 ELEVATED CO2 CLIMATE CARBON PHOTOSYNTHESIS RESPONSES DROUGHT
英文关键词	China; CMIP5; cross-model variability; Earth system models; net primary productivity; RCPs; 21st century
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000373612400013
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/258851
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Tao,Lin, Xin,Liu, Yongwen,et al. Causes of uncertainty in China's net primary production over the 21st century projected by the CMIP5 Earth system models[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2016,36(5).
APA	Wang, Tao,Lin, Xin,Liu, Yongwen,Dantec-Nedelec, Sarah,&Ottle, Catherine.(2016).Causes of uncertainty in China's net primary production over the 21st century projected by the CMIP5 Earth system models.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,36(5).
MLA	Wang, Tao,et al."Causes of uncertainty in China's net primary production over the 21st century projected by the CMIP5 Earth system models".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 36.5(2016).