气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Effects of Urbanization and Climate Change on Peak Flows over the San Antonio River Basin, Texas

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JHM-D-15-0216.1
	Effects of Urbanization and Climate Change on Peak Flows over the San Antonio River Basin, Texas
	Zhao, Gang; Gao, Huilin; Cuo, Lan
通讯作者	Gao, HL (通讯作者)
发表日期	2016
ISSN	1525-755X
EISSN	1525-7541
起始页码	2371
结束页码	2389
卷号	17 期号:9
英文摘要	A thorough understanding of the peak flows under urbanization and climate change-with the associated uncertainties-is indispensable for mitigating the negative social, economic, and environmental impacts from flooding. In this paper, a case study was conducted by applying the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to the San Antonio River basin (SARB), Texas. Historical and future land-cover maps were assembled to represent the urbanization process. Future climate and its uncertainties were represented by a series of designed scenarios using the Change Factor (CF) method. The factors were calculated by comparing the model ensemble from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with baseline historical climatology during two future periods (2020-49, period 1; 2070-99, period 2). It was found that with urban impervious areas increasing alone, annual peak flows may increase from 601 (period 1) to 885 m(3) s(-1) (period 2). With regard to climate change, annual peak flows driven by forcings from maximum, median, and minimum CFs under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) were analyzed. While the median values of future annual peak flows-forced by the median CF values-are very similar to the baseline under all RCPs, in each case the uncertainty range (calculated as the difference between annual peak flows driven by the maximum and minimum CFs) is very large. When urbanization and climate change coevolve, these averaged annual peak flows from the four RCPs will increase from 447 (period 1) to 707 m(3) s(-1) (period 2), with the uncertainties associated with climate change more than 3 times greater than those from urbanization.
关键词	CONTERMINOUS UNITED-STATES LAND-COVER DATABASE UNCERTAINTY SOURCES VEGETATION MODEL FLOOD FREQUENCY LARGE ENSEMBLE CHANGE IMPACTS RUNOFF PRECIPITATION EVENTS
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000385419800002
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/258671
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao, Gang,Gao, Huilin,Cuo, Lan. Effects of Urbanization and Climate Change on Peak Flows over the San Antonio River Basin, Texas[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2016,17(9).
APA	Zhao, Gang,Gao, Huilin,&Cuo, Lan.(2016).Effects of Urbanization and Climate Change on Peak Flows over the San Antonio River Basin, Texas.JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,17(9).
MLA	Zhao, Gang,et al."Effects of Urbanization and Climate Change on Peak Flows over the San Antonio River Basin, Texas".JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY 17.9(2016).