气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of future precipitation scenario using statistical downscaling model over humid, subhumid, and arid region of Nepal-a case study

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DOI	10.1007/s00704-014-1365-y
	Evaluation of future precipitation scenario using statistical downscaling model over humid, subhumid, and arid region of Nepal-a case study
	Sigdel, Madan; Ma, Yaoming
通讯作者	Sigdel, M (通讯作者)
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0177-798X
EISSN	1434-4483
起始页码	453
结束页码	460
卷号	123 期号:3-4
英文摘要	Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was applied in downscaling precipitation in the three climatic regions of Nepal. The study includes the calibration of the SDSM model by using large-scale atmospheric variables encompassing National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, the validation of the model, and the outputs of downscaled scenarios A2 and B2 of the HadCM3 model for the future. The average R (2) value during validation period was 0.84, indicating the good applicability of SDSM for simulating precipitation. Under both scenarios A2 and B2, during the prediction period of 2010-2099, the change of annual mean precipitation in the three climatic regions would present a tendency of surplus of precipitation as compared to the mean values of the base period. On the average for all three climatic regions of Nepal, the annual mean precipitation would increase by about 13.75 % under scenario A2 and increase near about 11.68 % under scenario B2 in the 2050s. The model showed better performance over humid region; moreover, simulated results for the peak monsoon months seem to be overestimated over subhumid and arid regions.
关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS SDSM TEMPERATURE OUTPUT
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000368714100003
来源期刊	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/258649
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sigdel, Madan,Ma, Yaoming. Evaluation of future precipitation scenario using statistical downscaling model over humid, subhumid, and arid region of Nepal-a case study[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2016,123(3-4).
APA	Sigdel, Madan,&Ma, Yaoming.(2016).Evaluation of future precipitation scenario using statistical downscaling model over humid, subhumid, and arid region of Nepal-a case study.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,123(3-4).
MLA	Sigdel, Madan,et al."Evaluation of future precipitation scenario using statistical downscaling model over humid, subhumid, and arid region of Nepal-a case study".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 123.3-4(2016).