气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Multicriteria evaluation of discharge simulation in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1002/2015JD023129
	Multicriteria evaluation of discharge simulation in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models
	Yang, Hui; Piao, Shilong; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Ciais, Philippe; Yin, Yi; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Sitch, Stephen; Ahlstrom, Anders; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Huntingford, Chris; Levis, Sam; Levy, Peter E.; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Yue; Li, Xiran; Lomas, Mark R.; Peylin, Philippe; Poulter, Ben; Viovy, Nicolas; Zaehle, Soenke; Zeng, Ning; Zhao, Fang; Wang, Lei
通讯作者	Piao, SL (通讯作者)
发表日期	2015
ISSN	2169-897X
EISSN	2169-8996
起始页码	7488
结束页码	7505
卷号	120 期号:15
英文摘要	In this study, we assessed the performance of discharge simulations by coupling the runoff from seven Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs; LPJ, ORCHIDEE, Sheffield-DGVM, TRIFFID, LPJ-GUESS, CLM4CN, and OCN) to one river routing model for 16 large river basins. The results show that the seasonal cycle of river discharge is generally modeled well in the low and middle latitudes but not in the high latitudes, where the peak discharge (due to snow and ice melting) is underestimated. For the annual mean discharge, the DGVMs chained with the routing model show an underestimation. Furthermore, the 30year trend of discharge is also underestimated. For the interannual variability of discharge, a skill score based on overlapping of probability density functions (PDFs) suggests that most models correctly reproduce the observed variability (correlation coefficient higher than 0.5; i.e., models account for 50% of observed interannual variability) except for the Lena, Yenisei, Yukon, and the Congo river basins. In addition, we compared the simulated runoff from different simulations where models were forced with either fixed or varying land use. This suggests that both seasonal and annual mean runoff has been little affected by land use change but that the trend itself of runoff is sensitive to land use change. None of the models when considered individually show significantly better performances than any other and in all basins. This suggests that based on current modeling capability, a regional-weighted average of multimodel ensemble projections might be appropriate to reduce the bias in future projection of global river discharge.
关键词	LAND-SURFACE MODEL CLIMATE-CHANGE RIVER DISCHARGE WATER AVAILABILITY PLANT GEOGRAPHY CARBON RUNOFF HYDROLOGY INCREASE IMPACTS
英文关键词	river discharge; model evaluation; land use change; climate change impacts
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000360501900012
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/258616
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, Hui,Piao, Shilong,Zeng, Zhenzhong,et al. Multicriteria evaluation of discharge simulation in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2015,120(15).
APA	Yang, Hui.,Piao, Shilong.,Zeng, Zhenzhong.,Ciais, Philippe.,Yin, Yi.,...&Wang, Lei.(2015).Multicriteria evaluation of discharge simulation in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,120(15).
MLA	Yang, Hui,et al."Multicriteria evaluation of discharge simulation in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 120.15(2015).