气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding

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DOI	10.1038/nature15402
	Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding
	Fu, Yongshuo H.; Zhao, Hongfang; Piao, Shilong; Peaucelle, Marc; Peng, Shushi; Zhou, Guiyun; Ciais, Philippe; Huang, Mengtian; Menzel, Annette; Uelas, Josep Pen; Song, Yang; Vitasse, Yann; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Janssens, Ivan A.
通讯作者	Piao, SL (通讯作者)
发表日期	2015
ISSN	0028-0836
EISSN	1476-4687
起始页码	104
结束页码	+
卷号	526 期号:7571
英文摘要	Earlier spring leaf unfolding is a frequently observed response of plants to climate warming(1-4). Many deciduous tree species require chilling for dormancy release, and warming-related reductions in chillingmay counteract the advance of leaf unfolding in response to warming(5,6). Empirical evidence for this, however, is limited to saplings or twigs in climate-controlled chambers(7,8). Using long-termin situ observations of leaf unfolding for seven dominant European tree species at 1,245 sites, here we show that the apparent response of leaf unfolding to climate warming (S-T, expressed in days advance of leaf unfolding per degrees C warming) has significantly decreased from 1980 to 2013 in all monitored tree species. Averaged across all species and sites, S-T decreased by 40% from 4.0 +/- 1.8 days degrees C-1 during 1980-1994 to 2.3 +/- 1.6 days degrees C-1 during 1999-2013. The declining S-T was also simulated by chilling-based phenology models, albeit with a weaker decline (24-30%) than observedin situ. The reduction in S-T is likely to be partly attributable to reduced chilling. Nonetheless, other mechanisms may also have a role, such as 'photo-period limitation' mechanisms that may become ultimately limiting when leaf unfolding dates occur too early in the season. Our results provide empirical evidence for a declining S-T, but also suggest that the predicted strong winter warming in the future may further reduce S-T and therefore result in a slow down in the advance of tree spring phenology.
关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE SENSITIVITY PHOTOPERIOD RESPONSES FEEDBACKS GROWTH WINTER
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000362095100042
来源期刊	NATURE
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/258615
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fu, Yongshuo H.,Zhao, Hongfang,Piao, Shilong,et al. Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2015,526(7571).
APA	Fu, Yongshuo H..,Zhao, Hongfang.,Piao, Shilong.,Peaucelle, Marc.,Peng, Shushi.,...&Janssens, Ivan A..(2015).Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding.NATURE,526(7571).
MLA	Fu, Yongshuo H.,et al."Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding".NATURE 526.7571(2015).