气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Integrated SWAT model and statistical downscaling for estimating streamflow response to climate change in the Lake Dianchi watershed, China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00477-015-1037-1
	Integrated SWAT model and statistical downscaling for estimating streamflow response to climate change in the Lake Dianchi watershed, China
	Zhou, Jing; He, Dan; Xie, Yufeng; Liu, Yong; Yang, Yonghui; Sheng, Hu; Guo, Huaicheng; Zhao, Lei; Zou, Rui
通讯作者	Liu, Y (通讯作者)
发表日期	2015
ISSN	1436-3240
EISSN	1436-3259
起始页码	1193
结束页码	1210
卷号	29 期号:4
英文摘要	Understanding the relationships between hydrological regime and climate change is important for water resources management. In this study, the streamflow response to climate change was investigated in the Lake Dianchi watershed, which is one of the most important eutrophic lakes in China. Daily time-series of temperature and precipitation in the future periods (2020, 2050 and 2080s) were projected from HadCM3 model. Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and the previously calibrated and validated Soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model were used to quantify the impacts of climate change on streamflow in this watershed. The results showed that SDSM can well capture the statistical relationships between the large scale climate variables and the observed weather at regional scale. The downscaled results showed that annual average maximum and minimum temperature would rise by 4.28 (3.25) and 4.71 A degrees C (3.33 A degrees C) in the 2080s under A2 (B2) scenario. Annual average precipitation would decrease within the range between 20.34 and 74.12 mm under both scenarios in the future. Based on SWAT model simulation, annual average streamflow would decrease in the future by the declination of -7.12 to -21.83 % and -6.34 to -17.09 % under A2 (B2) scenarios in the outlet of this watershed. The frequency of drought and extreme rainfall events would increase in the future, which is not beneficial to protect Lake Dianchi. This study could lead to a better understanding of the streamflow response under climate change and also raised concerns about the sustainability of future water resources in Lake Dianchi watershed.
关键词	CHANGE IMPACTS UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS DAILY PRECIPITATION RIVER FLOW CATCHMENT HYDROLOGY QUALITY BASIN VULNERABILITY RESOURCES
英文关键词	Climate change; Streamflow; Statistical downscaling model; SWAT; Lake Dianchi watershed
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Engineering, Environmental ; Engineering, Civil ; Environmental Sciences ; Statistics & Probability ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:000353516400010
来源期刊	STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/258570
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhou, Jing,He, Dan,Xie, Yufeng,et al. Integrated SWAT model and statistical downscaling for estimating streamflow response to climate change in the Lake Dianchi watershed, China[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2015,29(4).
APA	Zhou, Jing.,He, Dan.,Xie, Yufeng.,Liu, Yong.,Yang, Yonghui.,...&Zou, Rui.(2015).Integrated SWAT model and statistical downscaling for estimating streamflow response to climate change in the Lake Dianchi watershed, China.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,29(4).
MLA	Zhou, Jing,et al."Integrated SWAT model and statistical downscaling for estimating streamflow response to climate change in the Lake Dianchi watershed, China".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 29.4(2015).