气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Detecting Long-Term Trends in Precipitable Water over the Tibetan Plateau by Synthesis of Station and MODIS Observations

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00303.1
	Detecting Long-Term Trends in Precipitable Water over the Tibetan Plateau by Synthesis of Station and MODIS Observations
	Lu, Ning; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Qin, Jun; Yang, Kun; Yao, Ling
通讯作者	Lu, N (通讯作者)
发表日期	2015
ISSN	0894-8755
EISSN	1520-0442
起始页码	1707
结束页码	1722
卷号	28 期号:4
英文摘要	Long-term trends in precipitable water (PW) are an important component of climate change assessments for the Tibetan Plateau (TP). PW products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are able to provide good spatial coverage of PW over the TP but limited in time coverage, while the meteorological stations in the TP can estimate long-term PW but unevenly distributed. To detect the decadal trend in PW over the TP, Bayesian inference theory is used to construct long-term and spatially continuous PW data for the TP based on the station and MODIS observations. The prior information on the monthly-mean PW from MODIS and the 63 stations over the TP for 2000-06 is used to get the posterior probability knowledge that is utilized to build a Bayesian estimation model. This model is then operated to estimate continuous monthly-mean PW for 1970-2011 and its performance is evaluated using the monthly MODIS PW anomalies (2007-11) and annual GPS PW anomalies (1995-2011), with RMSEs below 0.65 mm, to demonstrate that the model estimation can reproduce the PW variability over the TP in both space and time. Annual PW series show a significant increasing trend of 0.19 mm decade(-1) for the TP during the 42 years. The most significant PW increase of 0.47 mm decade(-1) occurs for 1986-99 and an insignificant decrease occurs for 2000-11. From the comparison of the PW data from JRA-55, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, MERRA, NCEP-2, and ISCCP, it is found that none of them are able to show the actual long-term trends and variability in PW for the TP as the Bayesian estimation.
关键词	VAPOR ASSIMILATION REANALYSES CHINA SATELLITE MODEL
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000349670000021
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/258527
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lu, Ning,Trenberth, Kevin E.,Qin, Jun,et al. Detecting Long-Term Trends in Precipitable Water over the Tibetan Plateau by Synthesis of Station and MODIS Observations[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2015,28(4).
APA	Lu, Ning,Trenberth, Kevin E.,Qin, Jun,Yang, Kun,&Yao, Ling.(2015).Detecting Long-Term Trends in Precipitable Water over the Tibetan Plateau by Synthesis of Station and MODIS Observations.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,28(4).
MLA	Lu, Ning,et al."Detecting Long-Term Trends in Precipitable Water over the Tibetan Plateau by Synthesis of Station and MODIS Observations".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 28.4(2015).