气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Long-term prediction of grassland production for five temporal patterns of precipitation during the growing season of plants based on a system model in Xilingol, Inner Mongolia, China

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DOI	10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.07.018
	Long-term prediction of grassland production for five temporal patterns of precipitation during the growing season of plants based on a system model in Xilingol, Inner Mongolia, China
	Yiruhan; Shiyomi, Masae; Akiyama, Tsuyoshi; Wang, Shiping; Yamamura, Yasuo; Hori, Yoshimichi; Ailikun
通讯作者	Yiruhan (通讯作者)
发表日期	2014
ISSN	0304-3800
EISSN	1872-7026
起始页码	183
结束页码	192
卷号	291
英文摘要	We proposed a method to conveniently predict seasonal changes in aboveground grassland biomass in Xilingol, Inner Mongola, China, by herders and their cooperative. First, we formed five precipitation patterns with different meteorological characteristics during the plant growing season (March 16-October 15) using data accumulated for 55 years since 1953 at the Xilinghot Meteorological Observatory based on cluster analysis. Second, we applied the improved Xilingol Grassland Ecosystem Model to each of the five precipitation patterns and the 55-year grand mean of the patterns. The time-dependent aboveground biomass simulation showed different shapes among the six meteorological patterns, in particular a pattern formed by 13 drought years that produced the lowest aboveground biomass during the entire plant growing season. At the beginning of grazing season, herders and/or their cooperatives can choose one of the six patterns based on the long- and medium-term meteorological prediction officially announced by the meteorological observatory to predict temporal changes in aboveground biomass during a growing season of grassland plants. As the drought pattern years will come statistically once in four years in the Xilingol area according to our study, maintaining an appropriate stocking density is important to avoid economic loss to herders and degradation of the grassland ecosystem. Thus, a decision for grassland utilization based on our model choice will play a key role to maintain a stable income and to avoid overgrazing and to conserve grassland vegetation. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
关键词	NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY STEPPE BIOMASS DEGRADATION HETEROGENEITY MANAGEMENT REGION
英文关键词	Arid/semiarid steppe; Cluster analysis; Drought year; Grassland production; Grazing; Precipitation
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Ecology
WOS记录号	WOS:000343386500016
来源期刊	ECOLOGICAL MODELLING
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/258382
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yiruhan,Shiyomi, Masae,Akiyama, Tsuyoshi,et al. Long-term prediction of grassland production for five temporal patterns of precipitation during the growing season of plants based on a system model in Xilingol, Inner Mongolia, China[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2014,291.
APA	Yiruhan.,Shiyomi, Masae.,Akiyama, Tsuyoshi.,Wang, Shiping.,Yamamura, Yasuo.,...&Ailikun.(2014).Long-term prediction of grassland production for five temporal patterns of precipitation during the growing season of plants based on a system model in Xilingol, Inner Mongolia, China.ECOLOGICAL MODELLING,291.
MLA	Yiruhan,et al."Long-term prediction of grassland production for five temporal patterns of precipitation during the growing season of plants based on a system model in Xilingol, Inner Mongolia, China".ECOLOGICAL MODELLING 291(2014).