气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Numerical simulations of Gurenhekou glacier on the Tibetan Plateau

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DOI	10.3189/2014JoG13J126
	Numerical simulations of Gurenhekou glacier on the Tibetan Plateau
	Zhao, Liyun; Tian, Lide; Zwinger, Thomas; Ding, Ran; Zong, Jibiao; Ye, Qinghua; Moore, John C.
通讯作者	Zhao, LY (通讯作者)
发表日期	2014
ISSN	0022-1430
EISSN	1727-5652
起始页码	71
结束页码	82
卷号	60 期号:219
英文摘要	We investigate the impact of climate change on Gurenhekou glacier, southern Tibetan Plateau, which is representative of the tens of thousands of mountain glaciers in the region. We apply a three-dimensional, thermomechanically coupled full-Stokes model to simulate the evolution of the glacier. The steep and rugged bedrock geometry requires use of such a flow model. We parameterize the temperature and surface mass-balance (SMB) uncertainties using nearby automatic weather and meteorological stations, 6 year measured SMB data and an energy-balance model for a nearby glacier. Summer air temperature increased at 0.02 K a(-1) over the past 50 years, and the glacier has retreated at an average rate of 8.3 m a(-1). Prognostic simulations suggest an accelerated annual average retreat rate of similar to 9.1 m a(-1) along the central flowline for the next 25 years under continued steady warming. However, regional climate models suggest a marked increase in warming rate over Tibet during the 21st century, and this rate causes about a 0.9 +/- 0.3% a(-1) loss of glaciated area and 1.1 +/- 0.6% a(-1) shrinkage of glacier volume. These results, the rather high warming rates predicted and the small sizes of most Tibetan glaciers, suggest that significant numbers of glaciers will be lost in the region during the 21st century.
关键词	REGIONAL CLIMATE ENERGY-BALANCE MASS-BALANCE CHINA ICE RETREAT
英文关键词	glacier modelling; mountain glaciers
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Physical Geography ; Geology
WOS类目	Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:000332813200007
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/258380
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao, Liyun,Tian, Lide,Zwinger, Thomas,et al. Numerical simulations of Gurenhekou glacier on the Tibetan Plateau[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2014,60(219).
APA	Zhao, Liyun.,Tian, Lide.,Zwinger, Thomas.,Ding, Ran.,Zong, Jibiao.,...&Moore, John C..(2014).Numerical simulations of Gurenhekou glacier on the Tibetan Plateau.JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY,60(219).
MLA	Zhao, Liyun,et al."Numerical simulations of Gurenhekou glacier on the Tibetan Plateau".JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY 60.219(2014).