气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Environmental determinants of tropical forest and savanna distribution: A quantitative model evaluation and its implication

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DOI	10.1002/2014JG002627
	Environmental determinants of tropical forest and savanna distribution: A quantitative model evaluation and its implication
	Zeng, Zhenzhong; Chen, Anping; Piao, Shilong; Rabin, Sam; Shen, Zehao
通讯作者	Chen, AP (通讯作者)
发表日期	2014
ISSN	2169-8953
EISSN	2169-8961
起始页码	1432
结束页码	1445
卷号	119 期号:7
英文摘要	The distributions of tropical ecosystems are rapidly being altered by climate change and anthropogenic activities. One possible trend-the loss of tropical forests and replacement by savannas-could result in significant shifts in ecosystem services and biodiversity loss. However, the influence and the relative importance of environmental factors in regulating the distribution of tropical forest and savanna biomes are still poorly understood, which makes it difficult to predict future tropical forest and savanna distributions in the context of climate change. Here we use boosted regression trees to quantitatively evaluate the importance of environmental predictors-mainly climatic, edaphic, and fire factors-for the tropical forest-savanna distribution at a mesoscale across the tropics (between 15 degrees N and 35 degrees S). Our results demonstrate that climate alone can explain most of the distribution of tropical forest and savanna at the scale considered; dry season average precipitation is the single most important determinant across tropical Asia-Australia, Africa, and South America. Given the strong tendency of increased seasonality and decreased dry season precipitation predicted by global climate models, we estimate that about 28% of what is now tropical forest would likely be lost to savanna by the late 21st century under the future scenario considered. This study highlights the importance of climate seasonality and interannual variability in predicting the distribution of tropical forest and savanna, supporting the climate as the primary driver in the savanna biogeography.
关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE VEGETATION DISTRIBUTION REGRESSION TREES FIRE DEFORESTATION PRODUCTIVITY FEEDBACKS AFRICA DIFFER COVER
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:000340543000012
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-BIOGEOSCIENCES
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/258303
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zeng, Zhenzhong,Chen, Anping,Piao, Shilong,et al. Environmental determinants of tropical forest and savanna distribution: A quantitative model evaluation and its implication[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2014,119(7).
APA	Zeng, Zhenzhong,Chen, Anping,Piao, Shilong,Rabin, Sam,&Shen, Zehao.(2014).Environmental determinants of tropical forest and savanna distribution: A quantitative model evaluation and its implication.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-BIOGEOSCIENCES,119(7).
MLA	Zeng, Zhenzhong,et al."Environmental determinants of tropical forest and savanna distribution: A quantitative model evaluation and its implication".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-BIOGEOSCIENCES 119.7(2014).