气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A Review of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts and Their Use in Short- to Medium-Range Streamflow Forecasting

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DOI	10.1175/2011JHM1347.1
	A Review of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts and Their Use in Short- to Medium-Range Streamflow Forecasting
	Cuo, Lan; Pagano, Thomas C.; Wang, Q. J.
通讯作者	Pagano, TC (通讯作者)
发表日期	2011
ISSN	1525-755X
EISSN	1525-7541
起始页码	713
结束页码	728
卷号	12 期号:5
英文摘要	Unknown future precipitation is the dominant source of uncertainty for many streamflow forecasts. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models can be used to generate quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) to reduce this uncertainty. The usability and usefulness of NWP model outputs depend on the application time and space scales as well as forecast lead time. For streamflow nowcasting (very short lead times; e.g., 12 h), many applications are based on measured in situ or radar-based real-time precipitation and/or the extrapolation of recent precipitation patterns. QPF based on NWP model output may be more useful in extending forecast lead time, particularly in the range of a few days to a week, although low NWP model skill remains a major obstacle. Ensemble outputs from NWP models are used to articulate QPF uncertainty, improve forecast skill, and extend forecast lead times. Hydrologic prediction driven by these ensembles has been an active research field, although operational adoption has lagged behind. Conversely, relatively little study has been done on the hydrologic component (i.e., model, parameter, and initial condition) of uncertainty in the streamflow prediction system. Four domains of research are identified: selection and evaluation of NWP model based QPF products, improved QPF products, appropriate hydrologic modeling, and integrated applications.
关键词	HYDROLOGICAL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTS PREDICTION SYSTEM MODEL OUTPUT RIVER-BASIN NWP MODEL FLOOD WEATHER TIME RAINFALL
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000296029000001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/257867
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cuo, Lan,Pagano, Thomas C.,Wang, Q. J.. A Review of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts and Their Use in Short- to Medium-Range Streamflow Forecasting[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2011,12(5).
APA	Cuo, Lan,Pagano, Thomas C.,&Wang, Q. J..(2011).A Review of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts and Their Use in Short- to Medium-Range Streamflow Forecasting.JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,12(5).
MLA	Cuo, Lan,et al."A Review of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts and Their Use in Short- to Medium-Range Streamflow Forecasting".JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY 12.5(2011).