气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Antigenic escape selects for the evolution of higher pathogen transmission and virulence

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41559-021-01603-z
	Antigenic escape selects for the evolution of higher pathogen transmission and virulence
	Sasaki A.; Lion S.; Boots M.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	2397-334X
起始页码	51
结束页码	62
卷号	6 期号:1
英文摘要	Despite the propensity for complex and non-equilibrium dynamics in nature, eco-evolutionary analytical theory typically assumes that populations are at equilibria. In particular, pathogens often show antigenic escape from host immune defences, leading to repeated epidemics, fluctuating selection and diversification, but we do not understand how this impacts the evolution of virulence. We model the impact of antigenic drift and escape on the evolution of virulence in a generalized pathogen and apply a recently introduced oligomorphic methodology that captures the dynamics of the mean and variance of traits, to show analytically that these non-equilibrium dynamics select for the long-term persistence of more acute pathogens with higher virulence. Our analysis predicts both the timings and outcomes of antigenic shifts leading to repeated epidemics and predicts the increase in variation in both antigenicity and virulence before antigenic escape. There is considerable variation in the degree of antigenic escape that occurs across pathogens and our results may help to explain the difference in virulence between related pathogens including, potentially, human influenzas. Furthermore, it follows that these pathogens will have a lower R0, with clear implications for epidemic behaviour, endemic behaviour and control. More generally, our results show the importance of examining the evolutionary consequences of non-equilibrium dynamics. ? 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	epidemic; evolution; human; phenotype; virulence; Antigenic Drift and Shift; Biological Evolution; Epidemics; Humans; Phenotype; Virulence
来源期刊	Nature Ecology & Evolution
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/257220
作者单位	Department of Evolutionary Studies of Biosystems, The Graduate University of Advanced Studies, SOKENDAI, Kanagawa, Hayama, Japan; Evolution and Ecology Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; CEFE, CNRS, Univ Montpellier, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France; Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States; Biosciences, University of Exeter Penryn Campus, Cornwall, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sasaki A.,Lion S.,Boots M.. Antigenic escape selects for the evolution of higher pathogen transmission and virulence[J],2022,6(1).
APA	Sasaki A.,Lion S.,&Boots M..(2022).Antigenic escape selects for the evolution of higher pathogen transmission and virulence.Nature Ecology & Evolution,6(1).
MLA	Sasaki A.,et al."Antigenic escape selects for the evolution of higher pathogen transmission and virulence".Nature Ecology & Evolution 6.1(2022).