气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Extinction risk controlled by interaction of long-term and short-term climate change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41559-020-01377-w
	Extinction risk controlled by interaction of long-term and short-term climate change
	Mathes G.H.; van Dijk J.; Kiessling W.; Steinbauer M.J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2397-334X
起始页码	304
结束页码	310
卷号	5 期号:3
英文摘要	Assessing extinction risk from climate drivers is a major goal of conservation science. Few studies, however, include a long-term perspective of climate change. Without explicit integration, such long-term temperature trends and their interactions with short-term climate change may be so dominant that they blur or even reverse the apparent direct relationship between climate change and extinction. Here we evaluate how observed genus-level extinctions of arthropods, bivalves, cnidarians, echinoderms, foraminifera, gastropods, mammals and reptiles in the geological past can be predicted from the interaction of long-term temperature trends with short-term climate change. We compare synergistic palaeoclimate interaction (a short-term change on top of a long-term trend in the same direction) to antagonistic palaeoclimate interaction such as long-term cooling followed by short-term warming. Synergistic palaeoclimate interaction increases extinction risk by up to 40%. The memory of palaeoclimate interaction including the climate history experienced by ancestral lineages can be up to 60 Myr long. The effect size of palaeoclimate interaction is similar to other key factors such as geographic range, abundance or clade membership. Insights arising from this previously unknown driver of extinction risk might attenuate recent predictions of climate-change-induced biodiversity loss. ? 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	animal; biodiversity; climate change; mammal; reptile; species extinction; Animals; Biodiversity; Climate Change; Extinction, Biological; Mammals; Reptiles
来源期刊	Nature Ecology & Evolution
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/257011
作者单位	Department of Geography and Geosciences, GeoZentrum Nordbayern, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU), Erlangen, Germany; Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research (BayCEER), University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mathes G.H.,van Dijk J.,Kiessling W.,et al. Extinction risk controlled by interaction of long-term and short-term climate change[J],2021,5(3).
APA	Mathes G.H.,van Dijk J.,Kiessling W.,&Steinbauer M.J..(2021).Extinction risk controlled by interaction of long-term and short-term climate change.Nature Ecology & Evolution,5(3).
MLA	Mathes G.H.,et al."Extinction risk controlled by interaction of long-term and short-term climate change".Nature Ecology & Evolution 5.3(2021).