气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Random population fluctuations bias the Living Planet Index

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DOI	10.1038/s41559-021-01494-0
	Random population fluctuations bias the Living Planet Index
	Buschke F.T.; Hagan J.G.; Santini L.; Coetzee B.W.T.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2397-334X
起始页码	1145
结束页码	1152
卷号	5 期号:8
英文摘要	The Living Planet Index (LPI) is a standardized indicator for tracking population trends through time. Due to its ability to aggregate many time series in a single metric, the LPI has been proposed as an indicator for the Convention on Biological Diversity’s post-2020 Global Biodiversity Strategy. However, here we show that random population fluctuations introduce biases when calculating the LPI. By combining simulated and empirical data, we show how random fluctuations lead to a declining LPI even when overall population trends are stable and imprecise estimates of the LPI when populations increase or decrease nonlinearly. We applied randomization null models that demonstrate how random fluctuations exaggerate declines in the global LPI by 9.6%. Our results confirm substantial declines in the LPI but highlight sources of uncertainty in quantitative estimates. Randomization null models are useful for presenting uncertainty around indicators of progress towards international biodiversity targets. ? 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	astronomy; biodiversity; environmental protection; statistical bias; Bias; Biodiversity; Conservation of Natural Resources; Planets
来源期刊	Nature Ecology & Evolution
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256892
作者单位	Centre for Environmental Management, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa; Animal Ecology, Global Change and Sustainable Development, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium; Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Biology and Biotechnologies “Charles Darwin”, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy; National Research Council, Institute of Research on Terrestrial Ecosystems (CNR-IRET), Rome, Italy; Department of Zoology & Entomology, University of Pretoria, Hatfield, South Africa; Scientific Services, South African National Parks, Skukuza, South Africa; Global Change Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Buschke F.T.,Hagan J.G.,Santini L.,et al. Random population fluctuations bias the Living Planet Index[J],2021,5(8).
APA	Buschke F.T.,Hagan J.G.,Santini L.,&Coetzee B.W.T..(2021).Random population fluctuations bias the Living Planet Index.Nature Ecology & Evolution,5(8).
MLA	Buschke F.T.,et al."Random population fluctuations bias the Living Planet Index".Nature Ecology & Evolution 5.8(2021).