气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Spatial models of giant pandas under current and future conditions reveal extinction risks

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DOI	10.1038/s41559-021-01520-1
	Spatial models of giant pandas under current and future conditions reveal extinction risks
	Kong L.; Xu W.; Xiao Y.; Pimm S.L.; Shi H.; Ouyang Z.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2397-334X
起始页码	1309
结束页码	1316
卷号	5 期号:9
英文摘要	In addition to habitat loss and fragmentation, demographic processes—the vagaries of births, deaths and sex ratio fluctuations—pose substantial threats to wild giant panda populations. Additionally, climate change and plans for the Giant Panda National Park may influence (in opposing directions) the extinction risk for wild giant pandas. The Fourth National Giant Panda Census showed pandas living in 33 isolated populations. An estimated 259 animals live in 25 of these groups, ~14% of the total population. We used individual-based models to simulate time series of these small populations for 100 years. We analysed the spatial pattern of their risk of extinction under current conditions and multiple climate change models. Furthermore, we consider the impact of the proposed Giant Panda National Park. Results showed that 15 populations face a risk >90%, and for 3 other populations the risk is >50%. Of the 15 most at-risk populations, national parks can protect only 3. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change scenario, the 33 populations will probably further divide into 56 populations. Some 41 of them will face a risk >50% and 35 face a risk >90%. Although national parks will probably connect some fragmented habitats, 26 populations will be outside national park planning. Our study gives practical advice for conservation policies and management and has implications for the conservation of other species in the world that live in isolated, fragmented habitats. ? 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	animal; bear; climate change; ecosystem; environmental protection; recreational park; Animals; Climate Change; Conservation of Natural Resources; Ecosystem; Parks, Recreational; Ursidae
来源期刊	Nature Ecology & Evolution
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256865
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kong L.,Xu W.,Xiao Y.,et al. Spatial models of giant pandas under current and future conditions reveal extinction risks[J],2021,5(9).
APA	Kong L.,Xu W.,Xiao Y.,Pimm S.L.,Shi H.,&Ouyang Z..(2021).Spatial models of giant pandas under current and future conditions reveal extinction risks.Nature Ecology & Evolution,5(9).
MLA	Kong L.,et al."Spatial models of giant pandas under current and future conditions reveal extinction risks".Nature Ecology & Evolution 5.9(2021).