气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Changes in climate drive recent monarch butterfly dynamics

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DOI	10.1038/s41559-021-01504-1
	Changes in climate drive recent monarch butterfly dynamics
	Zylstra E.R.; Ries L.; Neupane N.; Saunders S.P.; Ramírez M.I.; Rendón-Salinas E.; Oberhauser K.S.; Farr M.T.; Zipkin E.F.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2397-334X
起始页码	1441
结束页码	1452
卷号	5 期号:10
英文摘要	Declines in the abundance and diversity of insects pose a substantial threat to terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, identifying the causes of these declines has proved difficult, even for well-studied species like monarch butterflies, whose eastern North American population has decreased markedly over the last three decades. Three hypotheses have been proposed to explain the changes observed in the eastern monarch population: loss of milkweed host plants from increased herbicide use, mortality during autumn migration and/or early-winter resettlement and changes in breeding-season climate. Here, we use a hierarchical modelling approach, combining data from >18,000 systematic surveys to evaluate support for each of these hypotheses over a 25-yr period. Between 2004 and 2018, breeding-season weather was nearly seven times more important than other factors in explaining variation in summer population size, which was positively associated with the size of the subsequent overwintering population. Although data limitations prevent definitive evaluation of the factors governing population size between 1994 and 2003 (the period of the steepest monarch decline coinciding with a widespread increase in herbicide use), breeding-season weather was similarly identified as an important driver of monarch population size. If observed changes in spring and summer climate continue, portions of the current breeding range may become inhospitable for monarchs. Our results highlight the increasingly important contribution of a changing climate to insect declines. ? 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	animal; Asclepias; butterfly; ecosystem; population dynamics; population migration; Animal Migration; Animals; Asclepias; Butterflies; Ecosystem; Population Dynamics
来源期刊	Nature Ecology & Evolution
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256859
作者单位	Department of Integrative Biology, Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior Program, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States; Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, United States; National Audubon Society, New York, NY, United States; Centro de Investigaciones en Geografía Ambiental, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, Mexico; World Wildlife Fund–México, Terrestrial Ecosystems Program, Zitácuaro, Mexico; University of Wisconsin Arboretum, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zylstra E.R.,Ries L.,Neupane N.,et al. Changes in climate drive recent monarch butterfly dynamics[J],2021,5(10).
APA	Zylstra E.R..,Ries L..,Neupane N..,Saunders S.P..,Ramírez M.I..,...&Zipkin E.F..(2021).Changes in climate drive recent monarch butterfly dynamics.Nature Ecology & Evolution,5(10).
MLA	Zylstra E.R.,et al."Changes in climate drive recent monarch butterfly dynamics".Nature Ecology & Evolution 5.10(2021).