气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-021-01276-3
	Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming
	Singh J.; Ashfaq M.; Skinner C.B.; Anderson W.B.; Mishra V.; Singh D.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	163
结束页码	170
卷号	12 期号:2
英文摘要	Spatially compounding extremes pose substantial threats to globally interconnected socio-economic systems. Here we use multiple large ensemble simulations of the high-emissions scenario to show increased risk of compound droughts during the boreal summer over ten global regions. Relative to the late twentieth century, the probability of compound droughts increases by ~40% and ~60% by the middle and late twenty-first century, respectively, with a disproportionate increase in risk across North America and the Amazon. These changes contribute to an approximately ninefold increase in agricultural area and population exposure to severe compound droughts with continued fossil-fuel dependence. ENSO is the predominant large-scale driver of compound droughts with 68% of historical events occurring during El Niño or La Niña conditions. With ENSO teleconnections remaining largely stationary in the future, a ~22% increase in frequency of ENSO events combined with projected warming drives the elevated risk of compound droughts. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; drought; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; global warming; simulation; Amazon River; North America
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256757
作者单位	School of the Environment, Washington State University, Vancouver, WA, United States; Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States; Department of Environmental, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA, United States; International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Gandhinagar, Gandhinagar, India; Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Gandhinagar, Gandhinagar, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Singh J.,Ashfaq M.,Skinner C.B.,et al. Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming[J],2022,12(2).
APA	Singh J.,Ashfaq M.,Skinner C.B.,Anderson W.B.,Mishra V.,&Singh D..(2022).Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming.Nature Climate Change,12(2).
MLA	Singh J.,et al."Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming".Nature Climate Change 12.2(2022).