气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Emergence of climate change in the tropical Pacific

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-022-01301-z
	Emergence of climate change in the tropical Pacific
	Ying J.; Collins M.; Cai W.; Timmermann A.; Huang P.; Chen D.; Stein K.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	356
结束页码	364
卷号	12 期号:4
英文摘要	Future changes in the mean climate of the tropical Pacific and characteristics of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are established as being likely. Determining the time of emergence of climate change signals from the natural variability is critical for mitigation strategies and adaptation planning. Here, using a multimodel ensemble, we find that the annual-mean sea surface temperature (SST) signal has already emerged across much of the tropical Pacific, appearing last in the east. The signal of a wetter annual-mean rainfall in the east is expected to emerge by mid-century, with some sensitivity to emission scenario. However, the ENSO-related rainfall variability signal is projected to emerge by about 2040 regardless of emission scenario, about 30 years earlier than ENSO-related SST variability signal at about 2070. Our results are instructive for the detection of climate change signals and reinforce the rapidly emerging risks of ENSO-induced climate extremes regardless of mitigation actions. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; extreme event; rainfall; sea surface temperature; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256725
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hangzhou, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Frontier Science Centre for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM), Qingdao, China; Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science (IBS), Busan, South Korea; Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea; Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynam...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ying J.,Collins M.,Cai W.,et al. Emergence of climate change in the tropical Pacific[J],2022,12(4).
APA	Ying J..,Collins M..,Cai W..,Timmermann A..,Huang P..,...&Stein K..(2022).Emergence of climate change in the tropical Pacific.Nature Climate Change,12(4).
MLA	Ying J.,et al."Emergence of climate change in the tropical Pacific".Nature Climate Change 12.4(2022).