气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-022-01296-7
	Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia
	Fewster R.E.; Morris P.J.; Ivanovic R.F.; Swindles G.T.; Peregon A.M.; Smith C.J.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	373
结束页码	379
卷号	12 期号:4
英文摘要	Human-induced climate warming by 2100 is expected to thaw large expanses of northern permafrost peatlands. However, the spatio-temporal dynamics of permafrost peatland thaw remain uncertain due to complex permafrost–climate interactions, the insulating properties of peat soils and variation in model projections of future climate. Here we show that permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia will soon surpass a climatic tipping point under scenarios of moderate-to-high warming (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). The total peatland area affected under these scenarios contains 37.0–39.5 Gt carbon (equivalent to twice the amount of carbon stored in European forests). Our bioclimatic models indicate that all of Fennoscandia will become climatically unsuitable for peatland permafrost by 2040. Strong action to reduce emissions (SSP1-2.6) by the 2090s could retain suitable climates for permafrost peatlands storing 13.9 Gt carbon in northernmost Western Siberia, indicating that socio-economic policies will determine the rate and extent of permafrost peatland thaw. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	bioclimatology; climate change; emission control; peatland; permafrost; Europe; Fennoscandia; Siberia
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256722
作者单位	School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Geography, School of Natural and Built Environment, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, United Kingdom; Ottawa-Carleton Geoscience Centre and Department of Earth Sciences, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Institute of Soil Science and Agrochemistry (ISSA), Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (SB RAS), Novosibirsk, Russian Federation; Tuvan State University, Kyzyl, Russian Federation; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fewster R.E.,Morris P.J.,Ivanovic R.F.,et al. Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia[J],2022,12(4).
APA	Fewster R.E.,Morris P.J.,Ivanovic R.F.,Swindles G.T.,Peregon A.M.,&Smith C.J..(2022).Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia.Nature Climate Change,12(4).
MLA	Fewster R.E.,et al."Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia".Nature Climate Change 12.4(2022).