气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-022-01309-5
	Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events
	Bevacqua E.; Zappa G.; Lehner F.; Zscheischler J.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	350
结束页码	355
卷号	12 期号:4
英文摘要	Compound hot–dry events—co-occurring hot and dry extremes—frequently cause damages to human and natural systems, often exceeding separate impacts from heatwaves and droughts. Strong increases in the occurrence of these events are projected with warming, but associated uncertainties remain large and poorly understood. Here, using climate model large ensembles, we show that mean precipitation trends exclusively modulate the future occurrence of compound hot–dry events over land. This occurs because local warming will be large enough that future droughts will always coincide with at least moderately hot extremes, even in a 2 °C warmer world. By contrast, precipitation trends are often weak and equivocal in sign, depending on the model, region and internal climate variability. Therefore, constraining regional precipitation trends will also constrain future compound hot–dry events. These results help to assess future frequencies of other compound extremes characterized by strongly different trends in the drivers. © 2022, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; global warming; precipitation (chemistry); trend analysis
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256720
作者单位	Department of Computational Hydrosystems, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Leipzig, Germany; National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), Bologna, Italy; Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bevacqua E.,Zappa G.,Lehner F.,等. Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events[J],2022,12(4).
APA	Bevacqua E.,Zappa G.,Lehner F.,&Zscheischler J..(2022).Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events.Nature Climate Change,12(4).
MLA	Bevacqua E.,et al."Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events".Nature Climate Change 12.4(2022).