气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Constraining the increased frequency of global precipitation extremes under warming

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-022-01329-1
	Constraining the increased frequency of global precipitation extremes under warming
	Thackeray C.W.; Hall A.; Norris J.; Chen D.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	441
结束页码	448
卷号	12 期号:5
英文摘要	A key indicator of climate change is the greater frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes across much of the globe. In fact, several studies have already documented increased regional precipitation extremes over recent decades. Future projections of these changes, however, vary widely across climate models. Using two generations of models, here we demonstrate an emergent relationship between the future increased occurrence of precipitation extremes aggregated over the globe and the observable change in their frequency over recent decades. This relationship is robust in constraining frequency changes in precipitation extremes in two separate ensembles and under two future emissions pathways (reducing intermodel spread by 20–40%). Moreover, this relationship is also apparent when the analysis is limited to near-global land regions. These constraints suggest that historical global precipitation extremes will occur roughly 32 ± 8% more often than at present by 2100 under a medium-emissions pathway (and 55 ± 13% more often under high emissions). © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; extreme event; frequency analysis; global change; global warming; precipitation (climatology); precipitation intensity
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256699
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Thackeray C.W.,Hall A.,Norris J.,et al. Constraining the increased frequency of global precipitation extremes under warming[J],2022,12(5).
APA	Thackeray C.W.,Hall A.,Norris J.,&Chen D..(2022).Constraining the increased frequency of global precipitation extremes under warming.Nature Climate Change,12(5).
MLA	Thackeray C.W.,et al."Constraining the increased frequency of global precipitation extremes under warming".Nature Climate Change 12.5(2022).