气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-022-01349-x
	Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights
	Guivarch C.; Le Gallic T.; Bauer N.; Fragkos P.; Huppmann D.; Jaxa-Rozen M.; Keppo I.; Kriegler E.; Krisztin T.; Marangoni G.; Pye S.; Riahi K.; Schaeffer R.; Tavoni M.; Trutnevyte E.; van Vuuren D.; Wagner F.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	428
结束页码	435
卷号	12 期号:5
英文摘要	As they gain new users, climate change mitigation scenarios are playing an increasing role in transitions to net zero. One promising practice is the analysis of scenario ensembles. Here we argue that this practice has the potential to bring new and more robust insights compared with the use of single scenarios. However, several important aspects have to be addressed. We identify key methodological challenges and the existing methods and applications that have been or can be used to address these challenges within a three-step approach: (1) pre-processing the ensemble; (2) selecting a few scenarios or analysing the full ensemble; and (3) providing users with efficient access to the information. © 2022, Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; ensemble forecasting; methodology; mitigation; scenario analysis
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256687
作者单位	CIRED, Ecole des Ponts, Nogent-sur-Marne, France; CIRED, CNRS, Nogent-sur-Marne, France; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; E3-Modelling, Athens, Greece; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; Renewable Energy Systems group, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland; Department of Mechanical Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Milan, Italy; UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, United Kingdom; COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, Netherlands; Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guivarch C.,Le Gallic T.,Bauer N.,et al. Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights[J],2022,12(5).
APA	Guivarch C..,Le Gallic T..,Bauer N..,Fragkos P..,Huppmann D..,...&Wagner F..(2022).Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights.Nature Climate Change,12(5).
MLA	Guivarch C.,et al."Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights".Nature Climate Change 12.5(2022).