气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102413
	The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling
	Zhao X.; Wise M.A.; Waldhoff S.T.; Kyle G.P.; Huster J.E.; Ramig C.W.; Rafelski L.E.; Patel P.L.; Calvin K.V.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	73
英文摘要	Researchers explore future economic and climate scenarios using global economic and integrated assessment models to understand long-term interactions between human development and global environmental changes. However, differences in trade modeling approaches are an important source of uncertainty in these types of assessments, particularly for regional projections. In this study, we modified the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to include a novel logit-based Armington trade structure, to examine two approaches to modeling trade: (1) an approach that represents segmented regional markets (SRM), and (2) an approach that represents integrated world markets (IWM). Our results demonstrate that assuming IWM, i.e., homogeneous product modeling and neglecting economic geography, could lead to lower cropland use (i.e., by 115 million hectares globally) and terrestrial carbon fluxes (i.e., by 25%) by the end of the century under the default GCAM scenario, compared with the logit-based Armington SRM structure. The results are highly heterogeneous across regions, with more pronounced regional trade responses driven by global market integration. Our study highlights the critical role that assumptions about future trade paradigms play in global economic and integrated assessment modeling. The results imply that closer harmonization of trade modeling approaches and trade parameter values could increase the convergence of regional results among models in model intercomparison studies. © 2022 Battelle Memorial Institute, The Author(s)
英文关键词	Agroeconomics; Armington; GCAM; Integrated assessment; Land use change emissions; Trade modeling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	agricultural trade; climate change; economic conditions; economic geography; regional trade; trade-environment relations
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256674
作者单位	Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Ct, College Park, MD 20740, United States; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460, United States; Department of Energy Resources Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao X.,Wise M.A.,Waldhoff S.T.,et al. The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling[J],2022,73.
APA	Zhao X..,Wise M.A..,Waldhoff S.T..,Kyle G.P..,Huster J.E..,...&Calvin K.V..(2022).The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling.Global Environmental Change,73.
MLA	Zhao X.,et al."The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling".Global Environmental Change 73(2022).