气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Greenhouse gas emissions from global cities under SSP/RCP scenarios, 1990 to 2100

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102478
	Greenhouse gas emissions from global cities under SSP/RCP scenarios, 1990 to 2100
	Gurney K.R.; Kılkış Ş.; Seto K.C.; Lwasa S.; Moran D.; Riahi K.; Keller M.; Rayner P.; Luqman M.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	73
英文摘要	Projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are critical to enable a better understanding and anticipation of future climate change under different socio-economic conditions and mitigation strategies. The climate projections and scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) framework, have provided a rich understanding of the constraints and opportunities for policy action. However, the current emissions scenarios lack an explicit treatment of urban emissions within the global context. Given the pace and scale of urbanization, with global urban populations expected to increase from about 4.4 billion today to about 7 billion by 2050, there is an urgent need to fill this knowledge gap. Here, we estimate the share of global GHG emissions driven by urban areas from 1990 to 2100 based on the SSP-RCP framework. The urban consumption-based GHG emissions are presented in five regional aggregates and based on a combination of the urban population share, 2015 urban per capita CO2eq carbon footprint, SSP-based national CO2eq emissions, and recent analysis of urban per capita CO2eq trends. We find that urban areas account for the majority of global GHG emissions in 2015 (61.8%). Moreover, the urban share of global GHG emissions progressively increases into the future, exceeding 80% in some scenarios by the end of the century. The combined urban areas in Asia and Developing Pacific, and Developed Countries account for 65.0% to 73.3% of cumulative urban consumption-based emissions between 2020 and 2100 across the scenarios. Given these dominant roles, we describe the implications for potential urban mitigation in each of the scenario narratives in order to meet the goal of climate neutrality within this century. © 2022
英文关键词	Climate change; Climate neutrality; Emission scenarios; Emissions mitigation; Greenhouse gases; Urban emissions
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; emission control; global change; greenhouse gas; mitigation; scenario analysis; socioeconomic conditions; urban population; Asia
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256662
作者单位	School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, 1295 S Knoles Drive, room 320, Flagstaff, AZ 86001, United States; The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, Ankara, Turkey; Yale School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States; Global Center on Adaptation, Rotterdam, Netherlands; Industrial Ecology Program, Department of Energy and Process Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria; School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gurney K.R.,Kılkış Ş.,Seto K.C.,et al. Greenhouse gas emissions from global cities under SSP/RCP scenarios, 1990 to 2100[J],2022,73.
APA	Gurney K.R..,Kılkış Ş..,Seto K.C..,Lwasa S..,Moran D..,...&Luqman M..(2022).Greenhouse gas emissions from global cities under SSP/RCP scenarios, 1990 to 2100.Global Environmental Change,73.
MLA	Gurney K.R.,et al."Greenhouse gas emissions from global cities under SSP/RCP scenarios, 1990 to 2100".Global Environmental Change 73(2022).