气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Subsidy analysis and development trend forecast of China's unconventional natural gas under the new unconventional gas subsidy policy

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112253
	Subsidy analysis and development trend forecast of China's unconventional natural gas under the new unconventional gas subsidy policy
	Liu J.; Li Z.; Duan X.; Luo D.; Zhao X.; Liu R.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0301-4215
卷号	153
英文摘要	In June 2019, China significantly changed its unconventional natural gas subsidy policy, changing the subsidy mode from a comprehensive quota standard mode to a competitive mode, aiming to reduce its subsidy pressure and channel subsidies to specific projects that are needed to increase annual and winter electricity production. Through a brief introduction of China's cleaner energy goals and a comparative analysis of the new and old subsidy policies, the orientations and impacts of the new policy are interpreted. By comparing the changes in subsidy quota, production and price of three kinds of unconventional natural gas (shale gas, tight gas and CBM) over the past ten years, in combination with the generalized Weng model, the impact of subsidy on unconventional natural gas production is quantified. The development trend of unconventional natural gas under the new policy is forecasted on the premise that the total amount of subsidy and sales price remain unchanged. The sensitivity of three kinds of unconventional natural gas to different subsidies is analyzed. The impact of the new policy on the change in gas production curve is illustrated after comparing the optimal production plans for typical shale gas wells under the new and old policies. The results show that shale gas and CBM may be negatively affected, while the development of tight gas may be promoted; in the future, tight gas and shale gas will dominate, while the development of CBM will be tough. The new policy will stimulate the production enterprises to adopt the plan of high initial production and high decline rate, which may lead to a reduction in total gas production and resources utilization efficiency. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Development trend forecast; Gas production curve; Subsidy policy; Unconventional natural gas
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Natural gas; Natural gas well production; Natural gas wells; Production control; Shale gas; Cleaner energies; Competitive mode; Development trend forecast; Development trends; Electricity production; Gas production curves; Subsidy policy; Trend forecast; Unconventional gas; Unconventional natural gas; Gases; coalbed methane; energy policy; forecasting method; gas production; shale gas; subsidy system; trend analysis; China
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256597
作者单位	State Grid Energy Research Institute Co. Ltd, 18 Binghe Road, Changping District, Beijing, 102209, China; Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, 20 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100083, China; School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum–Beijing, 18 Fuxue Road, Changping District, Beijing, 102200, China; College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, No.92, Weijin Road, Tianjin, 300072, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu J.,Li Z.,Duan X.,et al. Subsidy analysis and development trend forecast of China's unconventional natural gas under the new unconventional gas subsidy policy[J],2021,153.
APA	Liu J.,Li Z.,Duan X.,Luo D.,Zhao X.,&Liu R..(2021).Subsidy analysis and development trend forecast of China's unconventional natural gas under the new unconventional gas subsidy policy.Energy Policy,153.
MLA	Liu J.,et al."Subsidy analysis and development trend forecast of China's unconventional natural gas under the new unconventional gas subsidy policy".Energy Policy 153(2021).