气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Estimating nuclear proliferation and security risks in emerging markets using Bayesian Belief Networks

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112549
	Estimating nuclear proliferation and security risks in emerging markets using Bayesian Belief Networks
	Carless T.S.; Redus K.; Dryden R.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0301-4215
卷号	159
英文摘要	An estimated 28 countries are interested in introducing nuclear power into their electric grid mix. The sudden influx of new nuclear power plants into emerging nuclear energy countries can present further nuclear proliferation and security risks. These risks can be even more prevalent for nations with political instability and limited resources to adequately support a robust nuclear regulatory infrastructure. This paper estimates the nuclear proliferation and security risks associated with the deployment of Generation III + nuclear power plants and Small Modular Reactors to emerging nuclear energy countries using expert judgment in conjunction with Bayesian Belief Networks. On average, Turkey is the most likely to divert nuclear material to develop a nuclear weapon (46% with an rsd of 0.50), divert civilian nuclear knowledge and technology for military use (38% with an rsd of 0.61), and to have their nuclear material stolen by non-state actors (39% with an rsd of 0.65). This is followed by Saudi Arabia at 38% (0.66 rsd), 39% (0.64 rsd), 32% (0.83 rsd), respectively. Reactor type has minimal impact on risk, while nations that pursue domestic enrichment and reprocessing has the greatest impact. In scenarios where emerging nuclear energy countries pursue domestic enrichment and reprocessing, the nuclear proliferation and security risks increase between 16% and 18%, on average. Lower-risk countries that engage in domestic enrichment and reprocessing can have comparable nuclear proliferation and security risks as Turkey and Saudi Arabia. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Bayesian belief networks; Expert elicitation; Nuclear energy; Nuclear proliferation and security
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Nuclear energy; Nuclear fuel reprocessing; Nuclear weapons; Radioactive materials; Risk perception; Electric grids; Emerging markets; Expert elicitation; Nuclear material; Nuclear proliferation; Nuclear security; Political instability; Proliferation risks; Saudi Arabia; Security risks; Bayesian networks; Bayesian analysis; energy market; estimation method; nuclear power; power plant; risk assessment; Saudi Arabia; Turkey; Meleagris gallopavo
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256505
作者单位	The Brattle Group, One Beacon Street, Boston, MA 02108, United States; Redus and Associates, LLC, Oak Ridge, TN 37830, United States; RAND Corporation, 4570 Fifth Ave #600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Carless T.S.,Redus K.,Dryden R.. Estimating nuclear proliferation and security risks in emerging markets using Bayesian Belief Networks[J],2021,159.
APA	Carless T.S.,Redus K.,&Dryden R..(2021).Estimating nuclear proliferation and security risks in emerging markets using Bayesian Belief Networks.Energy Policy,159.
MLA	Carless T.S.,et al."Estimating nuclear proliferation and security risks in emerging markets using Bayesian Belief Networks".Energy Policy 159(2021).