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DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112713
	Ethanol production in the United States: The roles of policy, price, and demand
	Newes E.; Clark C.M.; Vimmerstedt L.; Peterson S.; Burkholder D.; Korotney D.; Inman D.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0301-4215
卷号	161
英文摘要	Assessments of the impact of the U.S. renewable fuel standard (RFS) should inform consideration of future biofuels policy. Conventional wisdom suggests the RFS played a major role in stimulating the ten-fold expansion in ethanol production and consumption in the United States from 2002 to 2019, but evidence increasingly suggests the RFS may have had a smaller effect than previously assumed. Price competitiveness, federal and state policies such as reformulated gasoline requirements, and octane content in ethanol also affect ethanol market attractiveness. This study explores the roles of policy and economic factors by comparing historical data with results from scenarios simulated in a system dynamics model. Results suggest price competitiveness may explain much of the growth in the ethanol industry from 2002 to 2019. The Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit and phaseout of the oxygenate methyl tert-butyl ether contributed to earlier growth relative to expected timing of growth based on fuel price alone. The RFS (modeled through observed Renewable Identification Numbers) contributed to increased ethanol production in later years and may have increased production in the earlier years if risk of investment was decreased by the RFS Program. © 2021 The Authors
英文关键词	Biomass scenario model; Hindcasting; Policy analysis; Renewable fuel standard (RFS); System dynamics; Volumetric ethanol excise tax credit (VEETC)
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Biofuels; Competition; Ethanol; System theory; Biomass scenario model; Excise taxes; Hindcasting; Policy analysis; Renewable fuel standard; Renewable fuels; Scenario models; Tax credits; Volumetric ethanol excise tax credit; Volumetrics; Taxation; alternative energy; biofuel; competitiveness; demand analysis; ethanol; hindcasting; oil production; policy analysis; price dynamics; United States
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256407
作者单位	National Renewable Energy Laboratory, United States; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, United States; Lexidyne, LLC, United States; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Newes E.,Clark C.M.,Vimmerstedt L.,et al. Ethanol production in the United States: The roles of policy, price, and demand[J],2022,161.
APA	Newes E..,Clark C.M..,Vimmerstedt L..,Peterson S..,Burkholder D..,...&Inman D..(2022).Ethanol production in the United States: The roles of policy, price, and demand.Energy Policy,161.
MLA	Newes E.,et al."Ethanol production in the United States: The roles of policy, price, and demand".Energy Policy 161(2022).