气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): China's natural gas production peak and energy return on investment (EROI): From the perspective of energy security

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112913
	China's natural gas production peak and energy return on investment (EROI): From the perspective of energy security
	Xie M.; Wei X.; Chen C.; Sun C.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0301-4215
卷号	164
英文摘要	China has to make full use of natural gas for a long period due to its cleanness and economy. To ensure energy security and promote natural gas development, it is necessary to reasonably predict natural gas peak under the background of unconventional natural gas replacing conventional natural gas in the long term. Based on Hubbert's peak theory, this paper forecasts that China's natural gas production will reach 196.7–582.5 billion cubic meters when considering the contribution of unconventional natural gas. The upper value is an optimistic scenario that fully considers the impact of technological progress and development investment on unconventional natural gas exploration. In an optimistic scenario, China can achieve energy security and a Nationally Determined Contribution plan by controlling the foreign dependence on natural gas within 40%. This paper also analyzes the internal mechanism between resource scarcity, natural gas peak and energy transformation from an energy return on investment. China's EROI in the oil and gas industries has experienced a U-shaped fluctuation process; in an optimistic scenario; EROI will continue to rise until natural gas production reaches its peak and effectively make natural gas the bridging fuel for the transformation from fossil energy to renewable energy. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	China's energy security; EROI; Hubbert model; Natural gas peak
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Gases; Investments; Natural gas; Natural gas well production; Petroleum prospecting; Profitability; China energy security; Energy return on investments; Hubbert model; Natural gas development; Natural gas peak; Natural-gas production; Optimistics; Production energies; Production peaks; Unconventional natural gas; Energy security; alternative energy; energy policy; investment; natural gas; optimization; scenario analysis; China
来源期刊	Energy Policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256259
作者单位	School of Management, China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361005, China; Department of Economics, School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361005, China; School of Management Science and Engineering, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing, 100048, China; China Center for Energy Economics Research, School of Economics, Xiamen University, Fujian, Xiamen, 361005, China; MOE Key Laboratory of Econometrics, School of Economics, Xiamen University, Fujian, Xiamen, 361005, China; College of Economics, Jinan University, Guangdong, Guangzhou, 510632, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xie M.,Wei X.,Chen C.,et al. China's natural gas production peak and energy return on investment (EROI): From the perspective of energy security[J],2022,164.
APA	Xie M.,Wei X.,Chen C.,&Sun C..(2022).China's natural gas production peak and energy return on investment (EROI): From the perspective of energy security.Energy Policy,164.
MLA	Xie M.,et al."China's natural gas production peak and energy return on investment (EROI): From the perspective of energy security".Energy Policy 164(2022).